Oi What The Heck

Im away till the end of June so no betting for me

2010-05-16T14:40:00.001-07:00

Work has me all over the place so Im out for a wee bit.
Good luck!

Running Total to $1250.20

2010-05-15T04:47:00.000-07:00

Strange night which on the face of it looks ok but it could have ended in disaster. Everything came together on my last bet which was stretching my systems to the 5th race of the place system and the 7th race of the win/fav system. The win/fav system lost ut but the place/fav system saved my bacon with a hefty won on a 5th race $400 bet. Definately nerve racking.
An interesting result on the win/fav system losing when the previous evening I had spent a number of hours putting all of this years results into a spreadsheet in a paper test to show a decent profit and only a 1 meeting loss. So the moment I go hard out with real money I hit a losing sequence...
Still have moved forward which is a good result.
I have a week or so of working on away from home so doubt I will get to bet or post again for a short while. Good luck for those still betting.

Running total to 1234.40

2010-05-14T05:10:00.000-07:00

Should have been more but the harness dividends were awful. I even used a more aggresive staking plan but typical dividends for place results of $1 to $1.20 meant I made no money from a series of successful bets.
The dogs and Singapore gallops gave me a decent night though.

Seriously....harness racing... what gives with the low dividends?

2010-05-14T03:46:00.000-07:00

Someone please enlighten me..... how come harness racing fav dividends are so low?. I get better odds with the dogs and there are smaller numbers racing there and smaller betting pools.
Its so bad I have decided to stop betting on harness racing with either the place/fav system or the win/fav system.

Favourite to place staking system

2010-05-13T18:26:00.000-07:00

I hope this makes sense its an explanation of how my staking system works with respect to betting on favourites to place. Click on the image to see the full staking plan.

Firstly, the numbers in pink indicate a loss on return of a bet, the numbers in yellow indicate a break even and the numbers in green are profit.
The 2 left columns are my amounts I bet. For this explanation just follow the $1, $5, $20, $70 and $250 amounts. Across the top are the possible dividends.
So if I bet on the first race of a meeting for a place a bet of $1 then looking across the dividend columns I can see what I win. For example if I bet $1 and the horse/dog comes in 3rd and pays out at $1.50 then I get a return of $1.50 which in turn gives me a porfit for that race of 50 cents.
The far right column is how much I have bet in a sequence so if I am up to the 3rd bet in a sequence ( my first two bets havent finished in the top 3) I have spent $26 so far. That means I need a dividend on the 3rd race of $1.40 or better to make a profit. A dividend of $1.3 breaks even and $1.20 or less means I have lost.
Its a very rare thing at a meeting where I have to make the 5th bet of $250 and from memory only once have i lost on that bet.

I do have a more aggressive staking plan which means I get profits even at $1.20 dividends but the staking for that is $1, $7, $50, $300, $1200. I did breifly try it but the risk over reward for this doesnt work for me so I dont actually use it. Also with the low betting pools in NZ a bet over $500 for a place is rejected by the TAB. On top of that it would have an adverse effect on the dividend paid out.

So my cut off point where I accept a loss on a meeting is 5 races in a row where a fav doesnt place. As I have mentioned I have only seen that once.

The plus side of this system is that if one sticks to the rules you make small consistent wins.
The down side is that its simply not possible to make large amounts.

My fav/win system offers more of a chance for bigger winnings and i will draw up a staking plan to explain that soon.

Cheers
Mike

any questions please feel free to drop me a message.

Camera on the jockey

2010-05-13T18:05:00.000-07:00

Just watched a race with the jockey having a camera onboard, wonder how long till we see this on all horses in a race........

Running Total to $1214.30

2010-05-13T03:05:00.000-07:00

The dogs were good to me tonight and typically the Harness racing was close to not being worth the effort.
Why are Harness dividends so low?. I really dont get it.

Running Total to $1183

2010-05-12T13:50:00.000-07:00

A quick $9 last night. I bet for an hour after footy practice, had planned to go through a late night Hong Kong meeting with the win system but was too tired and thought better of it.
When I resumed betting a couple of weeks ago I had a great start and got my running total to $1191 before having a couple of bad days. Its taken about 6 betting days to nearly catch up.
Its a funny thing but I have real confidence about what Im doing and my expectation is to win everyday.
This could be complacency or cockyness but I think its mostly because I firmly believe my 2 little unconventional systems do actually work when I stick to the rules.
Im now expecting the probability gods to slap me in the back of the head sometime soon.....

Gallops, Harness or Dogs?

2010-05-12T02:57:00.000-07:00

Im running 2 different systems, one based on favourites to win and one based on favourites to place.
Both systems require time to be free and bet without interruption however the place version is easier to exit from without risking a loss.
Ive been doing this for nearly a year now although i have had a couple of months break around xmas. I have lost count of how many bets I have made in that time but its a considerable number.
I still know bugger all about proper punting where one bases bet choice on knowledge and understanding of horses etc etc.
I love harness racing, especially night harness racing however sadly due to the dividends on offer it gives me the smallest returns. I no longer run the win favourite system with harness racing, it simply too often isnt worth the amount of time for the meagre returns i get based around my system. I do run the place system with harness racing but in truth its only if there are no gallops on and I have nothing better to do with the evening.
The win favourite system doesnt work with the dogs, too often a meeting wont have any favourites winning but the place system works very well with the dogs. Its a funny thing but sometimes the place dividends can be poor but usually the dividends are good. The other funny thing is that sometimes the pace dividend is better than the win dividend.
The gallops are where I do the best, I dont understand why the dividends are better but its just the way it is. I also get to run my win/fav system with the gallops which i quite enjoy, it has more tension for me and also very satisfying everytime I get a result. I suspect its because its the original system i dreamed up and there is more opportunity for bigger winning days. However its very time consuming so I only use it when i have a totally free afternoon.

Wish i knew why harness dividends were so poor, its a shame really, visually for me its far more exciting, well it is live anyway and those mad French have a pretty unique version of trotting racing with the jockeys on the horses....

Running total to $1174.00

2010-05-11T13:50:00.000-07:00

Part of yesterdays betting, a few bets at the end of the evening when there was nothing on tv and I felt like giving the dogs a spin. Another $8 added in the space of half a dozen bets.

If it wasnt for the fact that the size of bets used in the staking system gets so high so quickly I know I could do this full time and make some decent money. However if it was really this easy someone would have worked it out years ago.

Loss days via my system do come along but within the parameters of my systems they iron themselves out. The loss days due to me being a dumbarse are the frustrating ones and they are the true fly in the ointment. I looked at my records and I think my loss days due to my mistakes account for about 80% of all losses.
Those errors revolve around not following the system rules, missing a bet in a sequence because of interruption, taking a punt and trying to recover a loss with a speculative bet, betting while tired and missing a race because I fell asleep, missing a bet because I was multi tasking while waiting for a race and not checking frequently enough how far till it starts etc etc.

The last few days have been successful, mostly error free and relaxed

Running Total to $1166.00

2010-05-10T21:09:00.000-07:00

With time free I have been able to bet while in a relaxed state of mind and had a nice little afternoon, about $30 added.

Routine and Rhythm

2010-05-10T13:56:00.000-07:00

My re-entry from a break from betting has been pretty erratic because of work and footy coaching clashing with betting times etc and my results have been pretty erratic too. However when I have a clear day and clear head to bet and follow my system it does generally flow pretty well. I suspect its the same with many people that once in the groove everything tends to fall in to place.

The other interesting thing is how you can have good or bad days with respect to dividends. Yesterday was a classic example where I messed up with 2 bets, ended up $40 down but was able to recover it fairly easily simply because the place dividends were so juicy. I have had other days where I have bet all day, had reasonable results in terms of winning but the place dividends were so low the profit margins were very poor.

Im wondering if different parts of the racing season have an impact on dividends etc?

Running total to $1137.60

2010-05-10T06:45:00.000-07:00

Running total to $1137.60 but it should have been $40 more. A day after I make the comment about how easy it is when I simply follow my systems rules I break the rules and quickly lose $40 which it then takes me a few hours to get back. I do wonder if I will ever learn.....

Running total to $1124.60

2010-05-08T23:34:00.001-07:00

It all seems so easy when I simply follow the systems rules to the letter.....

Running total to $1101.30

2010-05-06T20:59:00.000-07:00

Sorry just a quick post, good day here about $50 winnings taking the total to 1101.30
I havent got the exact winnings total as I have just grabbed the number from my tab account while racing out the door.....

2 steps forward 1 step back

2010-05-06T19:17:00.000-07:00

I havent really done much this week apart from a couple of spradic attempts to get some bets on. The trouble is that having to stop halfway through a sequence ends in a small loss of $20. Currently grabbing some back but the key issue here is I dont have enough time spare right now to do this properly. My system is based simply on statistics and because of this its quite time consuming in terms of having to devote time to live racing. Most others systems are based more on knowledge and analysis of horses etc which I suspect means people arent waiting till 15-30 seconds before a race to place a bet.
Im convinced my system does work but the drawbacks are its time consuming and also difficult to make larger sums of money.
Im going to be moving house soon as well so hopefully once all my extra stuff is under control I will be able to do this with a bit more conviction. Till then its bits and bobs betting and updates for me.

$40.90 winnings

2010-04-30T00:26:00.001-07:00

running total to $1077.10

research research and more research.

2010-04-29T03:04:00.000-07:00

Ive had a fun week, havent posted results etc as i have also been flat out with work.
After the nice win courtesy of Singapore I had a bad loss of $80.40 when i fell asleep on the couch part way through a sequence and missed the fav bet which would have made it a positve effort..... Never mind
Then I caught up with a friend of mine who is a bit of a maths whizz and got him to take a look at what im doing from a statistical point of view to see if he could spot any improvements to my thinking.
He made one interesting observation and we debated his thoughts for a while till I decided to try out his idea with some paper testing first.
Well after a day or so I came round to his way of thinking and instead of testing the idea I ran with it. Of course it fell over and I found myself horribly in the hole with a loss pushing $400. Gathered myself and worked hard to recover that loss back to $118. Its a funny thing but Im almost happy about it. So all in all the last weeks efforts have me sitting just $20 down on my opening balance.... Ha!
So running balance is now $1135.40.

Back to the normal routine tomorrow.....

24 April $121

2010-04-24T01:28:00.000-07:00

Good day today thanks to the generous place dividends from Singapore/Kranji.
Total winnings this month $136.30
Total balance $1192.00

23/Apl $15.30

2010-04-23T11:09:00.000-07:00

First day back at it, short burst of betting using the place system. $15.30 profit.
Ive restarted with a balance of $1055.70 which now sits at $1071.00.
I will add screen shots of the account later.

OK Im back...

2010-04-22T00:44:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the lack of updates, I have been busy with life in general. I had been annoyed at a couple of stupid losses due to not sticking to my system and that coincided with work and coaching taking up a lot of my time. The good news for me was to find that i was able to walk away as its been a great fear that i could become addicted to something potentially ruinous, gambling...
Anyway Im back and will be updating with results soon.
Hope everyone is well and I will be doing the rounds checking how you have been doing
Cheers
Mike

Lack of activity and another loss

2010-01-27T21:13:00.000-08:00

Work has been very busy lately, couple that with house sitting here and there and I havent been betting much.

I did have a go at a few sports bets, using multi's here in NZ. I had been chatting with a mate of mine about the whole betting thing and had a go at a couple of multis. Unfortunately Spurs let in an equalizer at home against leeds in the last seconds to kill one multi and another was killed by Arsenal losing to Stoke so a very unsuccessful effort there. Even worse that the total loss for that was $140. So my betting bank is down to $375.

The sports bets for me were just pure gambling without following a system and this bothers me somewhat. Im going to give the betting a break for a couple more weeks, partly because Im annoyed at whats happened over the last 2 weeks and partly because to bet within my system I need to be based at home working within that enviroment. At present work and house sitting for friends has my life a bit disjointed.

Back soonish

Biggest Loss ever

2010-01-15T22:40:00.000-08:00

Nasty big loss of about $300 and I have just discovered by accident I have bet on the wrong race which is pretty frustrating. So yet again my loss comes from my error and not the system. Will post a screen shot tomorrow when im back home.

Still a loss is a loss....

Tipsters and their success rates?

2010-01-14T00:38:00.000-08:00

Do many people use tipping services and do they give you long term positive returns?
Im especially interested in sports tipping, it seems such a difficult area to accurately tip in to me.
Do those using tipping services use any special staking plans?

Winnings and Losses 5 months on.

2010-01-13T02:58:00.000-08:00

I have so far a total profit of $1769.60 after losses are taken out and for fun decided to total up all my loss days which came to $893.20.

13-1-2010 $14.20

2010-01-12T21:06:00.000-08:00

$14.20 today which takes my bank up to $800.60. A few days off after getting away with betting outside of my systems rules. Glad to be back betting with discipline hopefully it wont be a lesson I forget. Essentially I bet out of sequence and then ended up in a situation of having about a $120 loss in play and the final bet of the day ended up being virtually my entire bank. I had decided to take the loss but at the last minute went for it with a huge place bet. Fortunately the horse came through and I ended up with a healthy $75 profit however in all honesty I deserved to have lost it. My system isnt foolproof and at some point there will be big loss days but I really dont need to have self inflicted loss days outside of the system.

NOTE: ran a few bets on the greyhounds tonight and took the days winnings to $25.80 which brings my bank to $812.20

The dumb bet below

Not much betting ahead for the next few days, I have a busy day of work tomorrow and then Im off with 40,000 yahoos to a music festival here called "the Big Day Out". Looking forward to Lily Allen among others.

10-1-2010 $75.20

2010-01-10T01:18:00.000-08:00

$75.20 winnings today taking the balance up to $786.40 and my total winnings to $1796.60.
Im not on my computer tonight so will post screen grabs later.

9-1-2010 $16

2010-01-09T02:09:00.000-08:00

Should have been a whole lot more but I got tripped up by late odd changes which meant I bet on a horse which wasnt a favourite late in a sequence and the true favourite came through with a healthy dividend. However its a win day so all is good. Bank total now to $711.20 and overall winnings to $1694.40

Targets

2010-01-07T12:40:00.000-08:00

Im looking to try and hit about $250 per month in winnings and since I started this I have averaged $270 per month.

The fav/place system I run mostly is quite limited as to how much I can make because of the size of bets having to be made if I up the staking plan to win more. The fav/win version is much more friendly with respect to increasing the staking without becoming dangerous in bet size but to do this I do need a decent sized bank. So my first target is to get to a betting bank of $2000 and from there I will look to increase the staking plan on the win/fav side of things.

While I have been betting with real money i have also been paper trading the racing as well and in January alone with a $10 base bet the win/fav system would have me already just under $1000 up.

So $250 a month and an initial target of $2000 should keep me occupied till about May.

$1000 withdrawn $30.50 win

2010-01-06T15:25:00.000-08:00

OK the car looks great thanks to the $1000 I have taken out of the account. So i start again with a balance of $663.70

5-1-2010 $23.50

2010-01-05T02:50:00.000-08:00

Last bets before I withdraw $1000 from the TAB account which will leave me with a new starting bank of $658.90

4-1-2010 Loss $14.60

2010-01-04T00:23:00.000-08:00

Doing quite well today about $20 up but finished of with evening greyhounds and got nailed by last minute dividends indicating the wrong favourite 5 times in a row and each time the actual favourite came in the top 3.

I could have carried on as there are a number of greyhound meetings running but there is clearly something screwy with the tote etc so might as well save myself for another day.

I was looking at my record number of days in a row of winning closely but will have to start again. Still at least its only a small loss.

3-1-2010 $7.20

2010-01-03T00:54:00.000-08:00

Another evening of low dividends on the harness racing having a negative impact on the gallop returns. I have been messing with staking ratios via spreadsheets and may have to use different staking ratios for harness and gallops. Essentially the theory with respect to the place/fav system is working but the difference in place dividends between harness racing and gallops is having an impact. There are too many place dividends of $1.30 or less happening with the harness racing.
I will have to look at it some more. The concern is that the staking plane which will give me more consistency with harness winnings also carries the bigger loss when I finally have a true losing day with the place system.

The current total loss on the place/fav system for 1 meeting would be $346 which would take me about a month to recover from. The revised staking plan would give me a loss for a meeting of $456. Historical records show a meeting where the fav didnt finish in a place for 5 races in a row to be very very rare but at some point it will happen so do i risk the extra $100 and would it be worth it for more consistent returns from the harness side?.

Below is a snapshot of my place system staking plan. The top one is the slightly revised version, the bottom one my current plan. The green is profit, yellow break even and pink is loss. The stop point is the 5th race and from historical records in NZ and Aussie I have only come across 1 time when the fav didnt come in a place by the 5th race.

So having given it some thought for the harness races I might go with a 4th race stop point, increase the staking to as listed and see how this works. Since I have started with this place system I have only had a few times when I have gone to the 5th race, it could be worth the risk in the long run. I will check the historical records on this.
I will stick with the bottom plan for the gallops as it is working well for that.

2-1-10 $9.50

2010-01-02T01:33:00.000-08:00

$9.50, mixed day. The harness racing hurt me today with too many low dividends. A shame as the gallops went well.
Balance to $1647.80 although at one point it looked like hitting $1660.

1-1-2010 Big start to the new year

2009-12-31T22:57:00.000-08:00

$149.80 winnings today giving me a balance of 1638.30.
Both win/fav and place/fav systems used today as well as increased staking has resulted in my 3rd best day ever. Next week when I withdraw $1000 for the car repairs instead of having a bank of about $500 to start again with I will hopefully have $600 or more which gives me just a hint more of a lift.

On top of that I checked my records and I have now had 1 losing day in the last 45 days of betting.

Happy New Year....last little burst

2009-12-30T19:00:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year to Everyone.
A few bets here and there over the last few days, nearly got to $1500 by the end of the year but didnt really try that hard. Will be starting again in the new year with a $500 balance.

Cheers
Mike

Time to withdraw some winnings

2009-12-28T16:59:00.000-08:00

I was mulling over the idea of simply letting the balance build and then as appropriate increase my staking but I have decided that now is a good time to withdraw some of the winnings and use them to some panel and paint work on my car which needs some TLC. The car goes in for repair next week and the estimate is for about $1200 so thanks to the TAB for covering this. I will start again with a balance of $500 in the new year and start again.

Thats it for 2009

2009-12-27T04:28:00.000-08:00

112 days of betting graph. I started using the place/fav system from day 49 almost exclusively. Just recently I have used the win/fav system a couple of times and next year I plan to try and use that a little more and combine its use with the place/fav system. Ive had a pretty lucky run and most of my loss days have been where I have made mistakes or lacked discipline with respect with sticking to my system. I do expect to be tripped up by the odd true loss day but Im pretty comfortable now that what im doing actually works. The down side is that the place system is quite limited to how much I can make due to the aggressive staking plan and its impact on dividends if I try and go bigger, not to mention the risk factor. The next trick is to try and work out how to automate this within the restrictions of the NZ TAB website. The other trick is to make sure im having fun with it and its not a chore.

Hope everyone has a great New Year and thanks for all the advice.
Cheers
Mike

Balance at $1459.40

2009-12-26T23:12:00.000-08:00

Balance on the face of it looks good but it should have been a whole lot better. I didnt follow my own system rules and ended up losing $96 because of it. Luckily however there was a decent days betting and I made a total profit of $12.50 after the loss. I should be looking at a balance of nearly $1550.00. So a long day in front of the computer and tv and a lot of bets gives me $12.50 when if not for a lack of discipline on my part it could have been a $110.00 day.
Basically I got spooked on a meetings betting and when i got to the 4th bet, the $70 bet, the tote was telling me that it was $1 for the place and $1.60 for the win. I know the tote changes 30 seconds after the race starts and I know from experience that they usually give me a safe return dividend of maybe $1.40 at worst but for some silly reason I went for a $70 win bet and the horse came second... and paid $1.40 for the place....
Anyway, Im off for work for 2 days photographing a couple of cafe's etc on an island called Waiheke here in Aucklands waterways. I had hoped to sneak my way to $1500 by the years end but that wont happen. Still happy to sit with the balance I have.

Boxing Day $40.30

2009-12-25T22:12:00.000-08:00

Balance $1446.90

24-12 $27.70

2009-12-24T02:24:00.001-08:00

$27.70 Balance to $1406.60

23/12 $17.90

2009-12-23T02:17:00.000-08:00

Balance to $1378.90

My Trading Setup.....

2009-12-22T15:31:00.001-08:00

22/12 $17.00

2009-12-21T21:05:00.000-08:00

Balance at $1361.50

21/12 $11.80

2009-12-21T01:12:00.001-08:00

Balance $1344.50

Automated Betting?

2009-12-20T01:30:00.001-08:00

Has anyone had any experience with automated betting? I think there are tools called bots that can be programmed to bet for you? Do these things actually exist?

20/12 $9.00

2009-12-20T00:47:00.001-08:00

19/12 $16.50

2009-12-18T03:54:00.001-08:00

Total balance up to $1323.70

17/12 $8.20

2009-12-17T01:20:00.000-08:00

Just a few more today, not much time to bet with work etc taking up my time. Total up to $1307.20

16/12 $15.10 profit

2009-12-16T02:28:00.000-08:00

not much betting action, its that time of year, quick little burst tonight. Overall balance is $1299.00
Edited from original posting, and extra $11 picked up from 2 bets in Hong Kong

100 days betting graph

2009-12-12T10:21:00.000-08:00

13/12 $60.50 Profit

2009-12-12T01:56:00.000-08:00

I think this now means I have recovered everything from the big loss I had last week. On top of that I have just spotted on my records that today was my 100th day of actual betting days.

12/12 $5.20 profit

2009-12-11T12:46:00.001-08:00

Another quiet one, total balance is at $1223.20

10/12 $7.80 profit

2009-12-10T00:45:00.000-08:00

Just a few bets tonight, probably be light betting from here till xmas.
Total balance $1218.20

8/12 $68.70 profit

2009-12-08T02:59:00.000-08:00

Bizarre win with my last race. Greyhounds, win dividend was $1.20 and the place dividend was $2.10, luckily for me I was on the place bet.

7/12 $28.60 profit

2009-12-07T02:35:00.000-08:00

5/12 another tough day

2009-12-04T20:18:00.000-08:00

Currently down about $20 due to very low dividends on some results. A little bit of time to go and i am poised to end up with small profit, fingers crossed. 2 tough days in a row is hard work, its all been gallops so far today and usually the dividends are higher but I have to admit to enjoying the harness racing more despite the usually lower dividends and profits from place results.

Update, back to a $31.20 profit, balance up to $1113.10

The fact I got a profit hides how many bets and how hard this $31.20 was to get. This isnt a way to earn an income if anyone is wondering. Now i just have another 23 winning days in a row to make to break my previous record...

4/12 Ouch big loss

2009-12-04T01:44:00.000-08:00

Well at some point it had to happen. With the dangerous staking plan any loss day i have is possibly going to be a big one. Im still going with a few more races left tonight but currently I have a $290 loss. I was actually $40 up on the night. The frustrating part is that its not so much a case of my system/rules breaking down but more a case of external influences screwing me over. Unexpected visitors at just the wrong time interrupting sequences.
But thats all part of it and I have had a great run and I have had bad loss days in the past so i will get over this. So my balance has slipped just under $1000, we will see where it ends up by the time all tonights betting is over.

Update, end of betting I recovered some and the loss for the night came to $159.80. The recovery came via the win/fav system with a $64 bet at $4.20 grabbing back a decent chunk. Still a frustrating evening, I dont think it would bother me if it were a case of the system failing me. I had a great run of 23 days in a row but my first loss day is basically down to external influences interrupting my sequence. I had hoped to get to $1500 by xmas but I dont think that will happen now, still you never know...

So my total balance sits at $1080.90

2/12 $24.90 profit

2009-12-01T22:05:00.000-08:00

23 days in a row of winning.

1st Dec $4.10

2009-12-01T01:30:00.000-08:00

A funny one tonight, lots of little bets but only $4.10 profit. Similar number of bets last night for over $100. Sometimes the dividends and results all line up nicely, sometimes they dont.

30/11 Couldnt resist one the last day in Nov

2009-11-29T21:55:00.000-08:00

20 days in a row of Profit, $107.40 today taking me over $700 for the month of November. I doubt I will be able to repeat this feat in December as i have a fair amount of work and the usual xmas social events which will stop me betting as much. Also summer has arrived and over the next few months I should be outside a bit more so i am trying to work out a reasonable target which right now looks like being about $250 for December. We shall see....

29/11 19th day in a row profit

2009-11-28T19:47:00.000-08:00

$17, again not feeling great so not too many bets, have hit $1100 and nearly $600 for the month. I now have a small dilemma, do I just let this balance roll on or do i withdraw $600 and start from $500 for December. By leaving the balance to run I will have enough of a bank to cover doing both the win/fav and place/fav systems. I quite like this idea as I need to be brave enough to just go for it and believe the systems will both work. My mindset has changed a bit in the last few weeks, I do believe the place/fav system has merit and with its very consistent positive results has given me some confidence.
Anyway thats me for the Month of November

Below is a quick graph of my last 90 days betting, a running total graph. Hope it makes sense.

28/11 18th day in a row profit

2009-11-27T21:25:00.000-08:00

$16 today, I used a mixture of my place fav system and the win fav system. Today the place dividends were lower than usual which balances out some luck I have had recently with higher than usual place dividend pay outs.
Been sick for a few days, still not right but I have a couple more days till the end of November and need $18 to break $600 profit for the month.
Fingers crossed.

25/11 17th day in a row profit

2009-11-24T14:38:00.000-08:00

Ive been sick for a couple of days but did manage a few bets yesterday, have to admit I was on auto pilot and stopped after a short while. Only a $3.50 profit.

22/11 16th day in a row of profit

2009-11-21T23:12:00.000-08:00

Alex at http://every-loser-wins.blogspot.com/ made an interesting point

2009-11-21T13:48:00.000-08:00

Alex at http://every-loser-wins.blogspot.com/ made an interesting point about how often people post to their blogs. I guess we all have different levels of interest in posting or reasons.

Everytime I log on to do some betting I check what all the people on the blogs I follow have been doing. to be honest half the time it all looks like gibberish to me, not their thoughts but the betting, lays, trades etc etc simply because everyone posting that stuff has a far more intimate knowledge and understanding of betting. However I still check out whats happening because I like reading about other peoples success. I dont enjoy when others have loss days but I do get a kick out of recoveries.

I post every time I bet because I want to keep track of what Im doing, there is an inherent fear of what happened to a good friend of mine who lost everything with a gambling addiction.

Also I realize that what im doing is quite different from everyone else and also that most of the serious punters on all the forums I have looked at regard what I am doing as pretty stupid, its just not cool. So if what im doing does fall over in a big pile of dung there will be documented proof that the serious punters can direct some other crazy nut towards if they try what im doing.

On the flip side, if it works it might help people thinking about doing something similar or give someone an opportunity to fine tune or improve this.

I just like the idea of being able to beat the betting agency and my mum said horse racing is a mugs game, Id like to buy her something nice from the mugs game.....

3 weeks worth of fav place system 29/10 - 21/11

2009-11-21T10:30:00.000-08:00

21/11 15th day in a row profit.

2009-11-21T01:39:00.000-08:00

Another meeting where it took me till the $250 bet to get a result and again lady luck smiled with a $2 place dividend. I should go buy a lottery ticket I think.....

19/11 14th day in a row profit.

2009-11-18T21:10:00.000-08:00

Ive just hit $900 on my 14th day in a row of profit. I have a coaching course to study for so no more bets tonight.

18/11 $51 profit

2009-11-17T23:36:00.000-08:00

A new record of 13 winning days in a row. I will pop the screen shot on a bit later but the grand total is now up to $886.90 from the starting point of $500 3 weeks ago.

17/11 $4.70 profit

2009-11-17T15:34:00.000-08:00

should have been a bit more but I called it quits part way in to a losing run as i was too knackered after a big weekend....

16/11 $16.30 profit (btw NZ beat Bahrain)

2009-11-16T07:14:00.000-08:00

NZ v Bahrain World Cup qualifier....

2009-11-11T22:27:00.000-08:00

NZ play Bahrain to see who qualifies for next years world cup. A score draw and Bahrain go through so NZ must win. The game in Wellington was sold out 3 weeks ago, the first ever sell out for a football game in NZ and the biggest crowd to a football game in NZ ever, 35,500.

So i take off tomorrow and wont be back till Monday. If we win and qualify I suspect I wont sober up till next week......

I cant bet on this one, I think we have about a 40% chance of success given that Bahrain are about 30 places ahead of NZ on the FIFA rankings and the fact they have as a team played so many games together. our side only gets to play a few games a year and the players come together from all over the world.

Still i can wait, its going to be an epic occasion no matter what the score.

See you next week.

Dodged a huge Bullet and made a big profit

2009-11-10T19:04:00.000-08:00

Below is the reason why you lot should NOT copy what Im doing even though this time its come out very nicely for me. Hopefully seeing what has happened with me today will put anyone contemplating this method off. I need to have a good look at this all over again.

Im using my fav place system which has a very aggressive and very dangerous staking plan. The flip side is that I felt the probability risk was very low. The basic backbone of the staking plan was based around the fact that from historical data of the last years NZ racing there had never once been a case of a fav not coming in the first 3 place by the 6th race. A fav had always come through for a place result by the 5th race and that had only gone to the 5th race on a couple of occasions.

Today I got very lucky as at a meeting I was betting on the fav finally came through as a place bet in the 6th race. My staking plan is this $1, $5, $20, $70 and $250 at which point I would stop and take the loss. The staking points are based on the need to recover and show a loss even if place dividends drop to $1.40. They can go lower but overall Im seeing both in historical records and as im doing this an average of about $1.50 to $1.60

The first race of this meeting came through for me and so i carried on with the rest of the meeting. The next race was a non result, that was the $1 bet. The following race was a non result which was the $5 bet. Just before I was about to place the $20 bet my sister dropped by to say hello so I missed making the bet. The horse i would have bet on which would have been my $70 bet also failed to finish in the top 3. If you have a look at the sequence and race numbers on the screen grab you will see this.

So I resume betting with a $70 bet on what normally would have been my $250 bet. the bet which I didnt think I would have to resort to very often. The fav again failed to finish in the top 3.

So my next bet which was my $250 bet but wouldnt have happened normally because I would have reset and started from scratch comes through. Not only that but it pays a $2 dividend giving me a big fat profit.

Lady Luck and my sister deserves some flowers at least.

Probability is a dangerous thing to mess with.....

10/11 $29.70 profit

2009-11-09T20:50:00.000-08:00

I had set a small personal target of getting a profit of $150 for the month of November using the place system. Ive done $157.20 since I restarted which is well ahead of my target. of course it could all come falling down in the second half of November....

9/11 $4.70 profit

2009-11-08T23:15:00.000-08:00

8/11

2009-11-08T00:10:00.000-08:00

Ive been out all day at footy coaching so only a couple of quick bets tonight before the scheduled races finish for the day. A fast $2.40 profit on 5 place bets. Balance up to $622.70

7/11 $6.00

2009-11-07T01:31:00.001-08:00

6/11 $6.30 Profit

2009-11-06T00:25:00.000-08:00

Why I wouldnt recommend this system to anyone

2009-11-05T12:38:00.000-08:00

During all my searching and reading on various websites and forums I have come across many warnings about how the process of chasing winners, probability based systems and bet doubling etc is dangerous and wont work.

The trouble has been that in all the various warnings I have come across very few have been explained clearly enough and with respect to my systems they have ignored in the explanations my stop point for the bet doubling.

I will use my situation to hopefully make clear the dangers with what Im doing.

Firstly I had looked at something semi similar to what im doing many years ago, before the internet and before computers became household items. The internet and computers gave me a hint of a way to do what I had looked at years ago of possibly being viable.

Here in NZ we have one betting agency the TAB and it handles all the betting on the harness racing, gallops and dog racing. On any typical day I can be betting on 4 to 5 race meetings being held around NZ. Australia is right next door, only a few hours flight and they have roughly 5 times our population and as far as I can see about 5 times as many race meetings on any typical day. So the opportunity to bet on multiple meetings is great as the TAB here also enables betting in Australia.

The local TV racing channel is excellent and its integration with the Australian race meetings is first class, races in both countries can be held back a few minutes if there are delays for any reason and the timing of races looks to be well set up so that the vast majority of races are able to be televised live. The importance of this is that within what i am doing I am able to place bets literally seconds before the race starts and this in turn means I have a very good chance of betting on the money favourite and avoid most price plunges etc. Not always but for the most part.

So for consistency of my system it is important that i am betting as much as possible on the actual favourite, its not the end of the world if I dont but it does have an impact on its integrity in terms of the theory.

So a very quick recap, Im betting on favourite wins till I get a result at a meeting. Once I get a win I move on to the next meeting, even if its the first race in a meeting. I stop because there is a statistical chance that it may have been the only race the favourite comes through and wins.
If the favourite doesnt win I follow a staking plan which after the first 2 races basically doubles my bets. I do this until the 8th race and if I have had no results I reset, accepet the loss and start again. To simplify the explanation my staking plan would be on a $1 bas bet $1, $1, $2, $4, $8, $16, $32 and finally $64. Im doing this from the position of a bank base of $1000 ideally. This means that if I do get a loss meeting the $128 I have lost is just on 1/8th of my base bank. If I had a base bank of $2000 I would start with a base bet of $2 and so on.

The reason for the stop point in the doubling process is that its quite probable for there to be no fav winners at a meeting and some meetings can have 10 races or even more. A sequence of 10 losses would mean I had a loss of $512 which would be half my base bank wiped out.

The backbone of all of this is the statistic which is pretty well accepted that about 34% of all favourites will win.

The internet has been a huge help here in terms of research, both NZ and Australia have excellent historical records of race meetings which indicate favourites and dividends. This has meant I have been able to paper test the system using real historical records which has in term given me hope as the results have come out in the positive.

But here are where the dangers and flaws kick in.

Firstly paper testing the historical results doesnt factor in real world situations and problems. Those range from being interrupted by outside influences (phone calls, visitors, dropped internet connections) which can destroy a meetings flow. For example, and this has happened to me, say I am up to the 6th race in a meeting with no fav winning and I am getting ready to place a bet but am interrupted and miss the placing the bet i am looking at a loss so far of $24. Now say its a phone call and I miss the bet and then the fav actually wins the integrity of how I am doing this has been killed and what say that is the only fav to win in that meeting. ( its happened to me).

So the first flaw here is that I need to be able to follow an entire meeting without interruption or distraction.

BTW in my paper testing with the historical results i found between NZ and Australia going through every single meeting no fav win meetings were happening about 4 times a month which considering the high number of meetings is reasonably rare. Off the top of my head and I shall check this it works out being about 1 in 40 meetings.

The next flaw in the system is related to the above, the probability aspect. if I were able to bet every single meeting in both Australia and NZ and get the actual favourite every time even with the no fav win meetings the profits are pretty healthy. The trouble is that I cant and I doubt that there is yet the software available to do exactly that via automation.

So its quite probable that i might be able to go 6 months without hitting a single no fav win meeting just by the fact Im only actually betting on about 1/10th of all meetings and I simply miss the meetings it happens in.

However its also entirely probable that I may hit every meeting in a month in Aussie and NZ where the no fav win situation happens. there is of course that for example one weekend I might hit 4 no fav win meetings in the space of 2 days if I were unlucky enough to hit them as they appear. Its unlikely but its quite possible.

So the internet betting allows me to apply this system to multiple meetings each day in NZ and Australia which theoretically greatly increase the opportunity to make some decent profits.

It also unfortunately increases the chances that i hit the non fav win meetings because in real world terms Im unable to bet on every meeting taking place.

Its sort of like Russian Roulette.

I do have my stop betting trigger point of the 8th race and my staking plan is proportional to my bank and so far in my real world experience which is only 3 months old its worked quite well but the truth is this system is far from fool proof and is basically a gamble.

My fav place system is safer in terms of a far higher probabilty of getting the results I want but far far more dangerous in terms of wiping out any profits I have made and far harder to recover from. Its taken me about 3 weeks to make what would take me less than a week to make with the fav win version. But a loss day with the place version would take me about 2 months to recover from. The historical stats make it highly unlikely for a loss day but then there is some poor sod in the US who has been hit by lightning 7 times in his life......

So if anyone decides to copy what im doing or any variation please be completely aware that its far from perfect and I would bet people are better off trying to make systems work which are based on a sound knowledge of horse racing and understanding how to pick winners.

Finally, why am I doing it if its got this risky element to it?

Im having fun with it, Im doing pretty well so far, I have a couple of friends who are keeping track so that they can kick my arse if I end up developing a problem gambling habit and its quite simply a fun challenge to try and beat the book.....

I dont believe what Im doing and my system could provide a full time income.
At one point I had hopes it might be something I could make meaningful amounts of money out of but the reality factor has kicked in and the truth is it will only really be a little hobby on the side for me.

Hope that lot made sense.

Lots of bets for tiny profit. (initially)

2009-11-04T20:43:00.000-08:00

A number of meetings in in Aussie and NZ so with an afternoon completely free I took on a meeting in Brisbane for the win/fav system as well as applying the place/fav system to Brisbane and other meetings.

Brisbane ended up not giving me a fav win or place till the 4th race which meant my win bets were $1, $1, $2 and $4 which had a $2.30 dividend giving me a marvelous $1.20 profit from the win fav side of the meeting.
Then on the place/fav side of things the bets were $1, $5, $20 and $70 with the dividend being $1.40 which gave me a stupendous profit of $2.00 so a grand $3.20 profit from the meeting so far. I will place bet the next couple of races and also place bet some other meetings for the rest of the evening.

The place/fav thing was supposed to give me some relief and confidence boosting results while i worked my way through the win/fav side of things but of course god decided to mess with me a bit......

Hey im not complaining though but a nice $3 or more win div and maybe a $1.60 or more place div would have made it more fun for me. As it is it will be another day ending in the positive. So far the "bank" is up to $571.80.

Final note, bet on a large number of races tonight and final healthy profit ended up being $45.70. "Bank" now sitting at $608. I would post a screen grab of all the bets for the night but there are about 3 screen grabs worth and im tired and cant be arsed so here is the final page of bets.

3 place bets $12 profit

2009-11-03T17:46:00.001-08:00

Only time for 3 place bets at Paeroa, 1st 2 horses didnt place, 3rd bet in sequence is $20 and the place divi was $1.9.

Have to get on with work and have footy coaching tonight so doubt I will get any others on.

Grabbed it back plus a bit

2009-11-02T19:13:00.000-08:00

Melbourne Cup day means lots of gallops in NZ and Aussie. Gallops means higher place dividends than the harness racing which means less races to win more.
14 place bets for a profit of $21.50 grabbing back the $9 lost yesterday.

$9 loss due to not following system

2009-11-02T10:26:00.000-08:00

Only 3 bets, went bad right from first one. Firstly I placed a place bet on a meeting where I hadnt left enough races to win back from a loss.
Next race there was a super hot favourite with no place dividend on a 2 places result only and I went for a small win bet, it came second. then trying to recover from a small $4 loss quickly I went straight to a $5 place bet on a new meeting, it didnt come through. The very next race at the meeting had a small field with only a 2 places dividends and yet another super hot fav with tiny dividends. I was annoyed at the previous dumb betting and decided to go watch tv instead. Im sure I could have recovered but wasnt in the right frame of mind to keep at it. Basically I would say that 90% to 95% of my losses come from stupidity on my part or being interrupted during the process.

Annoying because I had gone 9 winning days in a row.

Dumbarse.

$9.30

2009-11-01T17:59:00.000-08:00

5 races place betting $9.30 profit

Back Fitting or Back testing?

2009-11-01T13:23:00.000-08:00

Im familiar with the term back fitting and have been guilty of it in the past and possibly even right now. The way i understand it is that its when one fiddles with data to make a system work.

One thing I have been doing is using historical records on the local (NZ and Aussie) racing websites to test if my systems will work. So basically I have my win/fav system with the bet doubling and stop protection mechanism and I put all the results from the last year or sometimes 2 years into a spreadsheet and see how it works. To my mind thats not back fitting, thats back testing.

With respect to my fav/place system I did the same thing with respect to inputting all that data into a spreadsheet and applying rules but in this case I then fiddled with the staking process till I got positive outcomes. So that to me would be back fitting?

Except for one thing, I was trying to find out an appropriate staking plan to make it viable (well not viable in terms of making a living). So am I back fitting here or working out an appropriate staking plan based around the fact that I know the place dividends are so low but the frequency of positive returns is reasonably frequent.

Im 50/50 on this. I think its back fitting but not done to delude myself if that makes sense. However thats debatable....

I have started to write a posting about how my fav/win system can work but also how in real world terms it wont work. The trouble Im having is putting it down in a coherent manner. I have been researching this probability based process for months and months, and have had plenty of great advice from people via forums and emails but never anything that truely showed me where it falls down. I think I have a handle now on a particular weakness and as soon as I come up with a coherent explanation I will put it down here.

1st Nov

2009-11-01T01:43:00.000-07:00

$9.00 profit

NZ Under 17 footy team!

2009-10-31T20:10:00.000-07:00

Ive been out all day at footy training and I get home, play the recording of NZ's under 17 boys teams last game at the Under 17 world cup and we are 1-0 down in the 91st minute when we score a stunning equalizer. So what? Well it means the the NZ team qualify from the group stages to the knock out section, so what? Well its the first time any NZ footy team has ever got past the group stage at any FIFA tournament.
Big day for footy fans in a rugby mad country.

btw at the footy trials there was a young girl who showed up with a Liverpool kit on and the name Torres on her shirt. I gave her a teasing about it and then discovered she was the outstanding trialist on show. She got the highest score from all the selectors which just goes to show you should never judge a book by its cover..... hahahahaha

Quick note on the footy.

2009-10-31T11:49:00.000-07:00

Aberdeen lost 2-0 at home but on the good news front Torquay won and the dream of staying in the 2nd div is still alive. I know its early in the season but Torquay have a tough job ahead of them.

And just to wind up all you Liverpool boys out there, you were already 2-1 down before the sending offs. Liverpool fans blind loyalty to the cause means they just dont see the bigger picture, its an admirable trait but misguided.

I remember the Liverpool of the 70's and 80's and you lot used to be the team people would watch because the quality was so great and the style was attractive to watch. Sorry but its awful football these days and Liverpool have no depth to their squad despite the huge number of players going through the revolving door at liverpool.

Rafa, its simple, get your team to pass pass pass and pass some more and nothing lofted, keep it on the deck, the sky is for the birds.

Im not a Liverpool fan so why do I care? Well Liverpool used to be a great team to watch, now they are like watching Bolton. Its ugly and nobody likes ugly.

31/10

2009-10-31T11:12:00.000-07:00

Im not blindly using the fav win system, to make that work I need to make sure I eliminate the errors at my end and one of the main culprits was interruptions during a meeting which caused me to miss key bets. So if I dont think I am going to have a few hours during a meeting where I am uninterrupted i will just use the fav place system.
Yesterday I had football coaching during the day and then last night I wanted to watch the Frost/Nixon movie on tv so I used the fav place system for all the races while I switched between the movie and the 30 seconds before a race started to make a bet. $4.60 profit on the night. Today I have a day of football representative selecting and will miss a fair number of meetings before I finish so tonight will also end up being place fav betting only.

30/10

2009-10-30T03:43:00.000-07:00

8 races $3.10 profit, didnt take too long and went out for the evening. A pretty fleeting effort tonight.

Ive made this mistake before...

2009-10-29T18:38:00.000-07:00

Listening to pundits before a race starts....

I had the fav checked to pop a place bet on and the tv is running and 4 racing pundits all were adamant that another horse would win. They each gave to my inexperienced ear very compelling reasons why a horse was going to win that race. Seeing that the dividends on offer were reasonably close between the fav and the pundit recommendation I decided to go with their pick. Of course the horse came stone motherless last. Do they do this on purpose??? Is it fixed? its not the first time I have seen this.

My Blog List...

2009-10-29T16:44:00.000-07:00

Its kind of huge to be honest...
I do however as part of my morning ritual with a cup of coffee browse all the ones which were recently updated. I had absolutely no idea there were so many people out there doing this stuff and there are some great reads among them too. Lots of variation on what and how people are doing things, some great advice too.

Cheers.

Gentle start

2009-10-29T01:11:00.000-07:00

10 races bet on tonight and $6.10 profit. I should be able to retire by the year 2123

Slight changes

2009-10-28T07:30:00.000-07:00

Ok most of you are betting/trading on a more serious scale than me and my approach relies on probabilty and statistics which throws up a few problems. Firstly because I only bet on a meeting till I get a win I have the problem of not betting on the rest of a meeting when a horse comes in for me on the 1st race. That seems like an awful waste of opportunity with 8 or more races not bet on. I cant change the win bet strategy I have simply because as I have found out in the past sometimes there is only 1 fav winner in a race meeting and it might just have been the first race.
So I have come up with a way based on place betting to enable me to continue betting on a race meeting after my horse has won. Its pretty much a variation on what I am doing with the win betting where I increase the stake each time after I dont get a result until I do get a result, also with a stop point. Now because place dividends are so low I have had to increase my stakes dramatically to make sure the process returns a profit.

So my sequence of stakes are $1, $5, $15, $45, $135, $400. Now the manner that these increases sends out alarm signals, what if the $400 bet doesnt come through, thats quite a loss to deal with. Well I went through the NZ racing board website results for the last 2 years and never once came up with a race meeting where the favourite didnt come in for a place by the 6th race, in fact only 3 times in 2 years did it get to the point of going as far as the 5th race. So essentially I am gambling heavily on the fact that having to place a $400 place bet is extremely unlikely. Its possible and Im prepared for that but its extremely unlikely. I also casually went through the Australian racing board results and didnt see any 6th race events and also very few 5th race events. We will see what happens here. Every system has its flaws I think. But thats betting/gambling isnt it? Although most of you are trading with betfair which looks like a different kettle of fish.

The other slight change here is that via my win bet process my first 2 bets for a meeting will be each way bets. This will help me to snatch a few more pennies from the first or second race wins I get which come up more frequently than other races, after the first 2 races I will then go back to betting wins and places seperately. Sounds complicated? probably is but I have my little spreadsheets set up to keep the idiot in me mostly controlled.

The other main thing is trying to make sure that I can eliminate individual errors. Thats where about 90% of my losses have come from and there have only been a few times where the probability side has actually kicked me in the butt.

One last thing is the psychology element. Chasing winners is a little stressful at times but the place result side comes in very frequently. The returns are tiny but it does help to keep me upbeat.

Anyway only a few races bet on tonight, I only went down the place system side of it and from 6 races made $3.20. While I havent been betting money over the last few weeks I have been mucking around with an imaginary bank and the place thing while giving tiny returns per race did end up providing just on $100 for the last 2 weeks. It means I can happily bet on multiple meetings confident that i am going to be heading in the positve direction.

Ok im back

2009-10-27T23:28:00.000-07:00

Righto, back in to it. Im having to start with a smaller bank because instead of using the football coaching money for this "venture" I ended up buying a new mac for work with it. So the restart bank is $500, it was going to be about $3000 but I really needed the new mac, my new camera pumps out far too big files for my old mac to handle. Also I have a fair amount of evening football coaching about to start up and I wont be able to bet as many meetings as i had been.
There is a slight change going to happen to what I do with place bets having their own little system which is not much of an earner but a consistent winner, I will elaborate shortly.

Sods law...

2009-10-17T14:53:00.000-07:00

While Im not betting at present I am still keeping track of the racing stats and as luck would have it over the last week in the race meetings I would have bet on there has been the unusual occurrence of 3 meetings with the fav not winning till the 7th race. What does that mean to me? Well basically it means that if I had been betting on the meetings this week I would have been looking at a profit of about $510 for the week..... bugger.

In the meantime I have come up with another system based around my current one but this time using place bets. In the testing using historical data and also over the last week it works very well in terms of successes however its very conservative in terms of winnings. When Im ready to start up again Im going to run two accounts at the TAB, one for the win bet system and one for the place bet system.

Footy bet

2009-10-14T17:12:00.000-07:00

I still havent replaced the TAB account money yet, waiting on a payment for a job but there is a small amount left in the account so decided to have a small punt on the footy.

Had a close look at the world cup qualifiers and being a football fanatic couldnt help myself. Bet on the Uruguay and Argentina game and was quite amazed at the odds on offer.

Despite Maradona's record so far and the British press conscious or subconscious desire for him to fail Argentina are a team full of superb players and for them to miss out on an automatic qualifying spot simply wouldnt happen. I do wonder if the bias against Maradona in the press has an impact on the bookies odds. Argentina hadnt been playing well and Uruguay are a good side with some talented players but I really couldnt see Argentina losing. Add in the last second heroics of the last game for Argentina and you are looking at a side with rising confidence.

So I did the dutch betting thing on Argentina to win or draw with the odds at $2.45 for an Argentina win and $3.20 for the draw and with Argentina winning came out with a small $5 win overall.

A quick thanks!

2009-10-13T11:28:00.000-07:00

Thanks to those who offer thoughts and advice. Im completely new to all this and I will no doubt ask lots of dumb questions in the future but I take all comments and advice seriously.
Cheers

Footy Betting question???

2009-10-12T13:14:00.000-07:00

For those of you betting on the football... I think most of you are trading rather than straight out betting but how many of you have looked at applying the Dutch betting system using two bookies. I have been looking at this and found that the bookies sort their odds on a game so that you cant use the Dutch betting system but if you take the odds at one bookie on team A and the odds on team B at another bookie you can end up with a garaunteed profit.
I suspect Im missing something important here as it seems too good to be true.

For example

Lithuania V Serbia this weekend.

TAB in NZ has $3.50 Lithuania and $2.00 Serbia

TABonline Aussie has $3.00 Lithuania and $2.15 serbia

So if I were to take the NZ TAB odds for Lithuania and the Aussie TAB odds for serbia I could apply the Dutch betting sytem and get a positive outcome.

Lithuania	5/2	desired profit£20.00	stake£24.00	£84.00	Profit £20.00
Serbia	11/10	£20.00	£40.00	£84.00	£20.00
		Total Stake =	£64.00

Im sure i must be missing something here....