Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Lack of activity and another loss

Work has been very busy lately, couple that with house sitting here and there and I havent been betting much. 
I did have a go at a few sports bets, using multi's here in NZ. I had been chatting with a mate of mine about the whole betting thing and had a go at a couple of multis. Unfortunately  Spurs let in an equalizer at home against leeds in the last seconds to kill one multi and another was killed by Arsenal losing to Stoke so a very unsuccessful effort there.  Even worse that the total loss for that was $140. So my betting bank is down to $375.

The sports bets for me were just pure gambling without following a system and this bothers me somewhat. Im going to give the betting a break for a couple more weeks, partly because Im annoyed at whats happened over the last 2 weeks and partly because to bet within my system I need to be based at home working within that enviroment. At present work and house sitting for friends has my life a bit disjointed. 

Back soonish

Friday, January 15, 2010

Biggest Loss ever

Nasty big loss of about $300 and I have just discovered by accident I have  bet on the wrong race which is pretty frustrating. So yet again my loss comes from my error and not the system. Will post a screen shot tomorrow when im back home.

Still a loss is a loss....

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Tipsters and their success rates?

Do many people use tipping services and do they give you long term positive returns?
Im especially interested in sports tipping, it seems such a difficult area to accurately tip in to me.
Do those using tipping services use any special staking plans?

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Winnings and Losses 5 months on.

I have so far a total profit of $1769.60 after losses are taken out and for fun decided to total up all my loss days which came to  $893.20.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

13-1-2010 $14.20

$14.20 today which takes my bank up to $800.60.  A few days off after getting away with betting outside of my systems rules.  Glad to be back betting with discipline hopefully it wont be a lesson I forget. Essentially I bet out of sequence and then ended up in a situation of having about a $120 loss in play and the final bet of the day ended up being virtually my entire bank. I had decided to take the loss but at the last minute went for it with a huge place bet. Fortunately the horse came through and I ended up with a healthy $75 profit however in all honesty I deserved to have lost it. My system isnt foolproof and at some point there will be big loss days but I really dont need to have self inflicted loss days outside of the system.

NOTE: ran a few bets on the greyhounds tonight and took the days winnings to  $25.80 which brings my bank to $812.20

The dumb bet below

Not much betting ahead for the next few days, I have a busy day of work tomorrow and then Im off with 40,000 yahoos to a music festival here called "the Big Day Out". Looking forward to Lily Allen among others.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

10-1-2010 $75.20

$75.20 winnings today taking the balance up to $786.40 and my total winnings to $1796.60.
Im not on my computer tonight so will post screen grabs later.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

9-1-2010 $16

Should have been a whole lot more but I got tripped up by late odd changes which meant I bet on a horse which wasnt a favourite late in a sequence and the true favourite came through with a healthy dividend.  However its a win day so all is good.  Bank total now to $711.20 and overall winnings to $1694.40

Thursday, January 7, 2010


Im looking to try and hit about $250 per month in winnings and since I started this I have averaged $270  per month. 
The fav/place system I run mostly is quite limited as to how much I can make because of the size of bets having to be made if I up the staking plan to win more.  The fav/win version is much more friendly with respect to increasing the staking without becoming dangerous in bet size but to do this I do need a decent sized bank. So my first target is to get to a betting bank of $2000 and from there I will look to increase the staking plan on the win/fav side of things.
While I have been betting with real money i have also been paper trading the racing as well and in January alone  with a $10 base bet the win/fav system would have me already just under $1000 up.

So $250 a month and an initial target of $2000 should keep me occupied till about May.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

$1000 withdrawn $30.50 win

OK the car looks great thanks to the $1000 I have taken out of the account. So i start again with a balance of  $663.70

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

5-1-2010 $23.50

Last bets before I withdraw $1000 from the TAB account which will leave me with a new starting bank of $658.90

Monday, January 4, 2010

4-1-2010 Loss $14.60

Doing quite well today about $20 up but finished of with evening greyhounds and got nailed by last minute dividends indicating the wrong favourite 5 times in a row and each time the actual favourite came in the top 3.

I could have carried on as there are a number of greyhound meetings running but there is clearly something screwy with the tote etc so might as well save myself for another day.

I was looking at my record number of days in a row of winning closely but will have to start again. Still at least its only a small loss.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

3-1-2010 $7.20

Another evening of low dividends on the harness racing having a negative impact on the gallop returns. I have been messing with staking ratios via spreadsheets and may have to use different staking ratios for harness and gallops. Essentially the theory with respect to the place/fav system is working but the difference in place dividends between harness racing and gallops is having an impact.  There are too many place dividends of $1.30 or less happening with the harness racing.
I will have to look at it some more. The concern is that the staking plane which will give me more consistency with harness winnings also carries the bigger loss when I finally have a true losing day with the place system.

The current total loss on the place/fav system for 1 meeting would be $346 which would take me about a month to recover from. The revised staking plan would give me a loss for a meeting of $456. Historical records show a meeting where the fav didnt finish in a place for 5 races in a row to be very very rare but at some point it will happen so do i risk the extra $100 and would it be worth it for more consistent returns from the harness side?.

Below is a snapshot of my place system staking plan. The top one is the slightly revised version, the bottom one my current plan.  The green is profit, yellow break even and pink is loss. The stop point is the 5th race and from historical records in NZ and Aussie I have only come across 1 time when the fav didnt come in a place by the 5th race.

So having given it some thought for the harness races I might go with a 4th race stop point, increase the staking to as listed and see how this works. Since I have started with this place system I have only had a few times when I have gone to the 5th race, it could be worth the risk in the long run. I will check the historical records on this.
 I will stick with the bottom plan for the gallops as it is working well for that.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

2-1-10 $9.50

$9.50, mixed day. The harness racing hurt me today with too many low dividends. A shame as the gallops went well.
Balance to $1647.80 although at one point it looked like hitting $1660.