Sunday, November 29, 2009

30/11 Couldnt resist one the last day in Nov

20 days in a row of Profit, $107.40 today taking me over $700 for the month of November.  I doubt I will be able to repeat this feat in December as i have a fair amount of work and the usual xmas social events which will stop me betting as much. Also summer has arrived and over the next few months I should be outside a bit more so i am trying to work out a reasonable target which right now looks like being about $250 for December. We shall see....

Saturday, November 28, 2009

29/11 19th day in a row profit

$17, again not feeling great so not too many bets, have hit $1100 and nearly $600 for the month. I now have a small dilemma, do I just let this balance roll on or do i withdraw $600 and start from $500 for December.  By leaving the balance to run I will have enough of a bank to cover doing both the win/fav  and place/fav systems. I quite like this idea as I need to be brave enough to just go for it and believe the systems will both work.  My mindset has changed a bit in the last few weeks, I do believe the place/fav system has merit and with its very consistent positive results has given me some confidence.
Anyway thats me for the Month of November

Below is a quick graph of my last 90 days betting, a running total graph. Hope it makes sense.

Friday, November 27, 2009

28/11 18th day in a row profit

$16 today, I used a mixture of my place fav system and the win fav system. Today the place dividends were lower than usual which balances out some luck I have had recently with higher than usual place dividend pay outs.
Been sick for a few days, still not right but I have a couple more days till the end of November and need $18 to break $600 profit for the month.
Fingers crossed.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

25/11 17th day in a row profit

Ive been sick for a couple of days but did manage a few bets yesterday, have to admit I was on auto pilot and stopped after a short while. Only a $3.50 profit.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

22/11 16th day in a row of profit

Alex at made an interesting point

Alex at made an interesting point about how often people post to their blogs. I guess  we all have different levels of interest in posting or reasons.

Everytime I log on to do some betting I check what all the people on the blogs I follow have been doing. to be honest half the time it all looks like gibberish to me, not their thoughts but the betting, lays, trades etc etc simply because everyone posting that stuff has a far more intimate knowledge and understanding of betting. However I still check out whats happening because I like reading about other peoples success. I dont enjoy when others have loss days but I do get a kick out of recoveries.

I post every time I bet because I want to keep track of what Im doing, there is an inherent fear of what happened to a good friend of mine who lost everything with a gambling addiction.

Also I realize that what im doing is quite different from everyone else and also that most of the serious punters on all the forums I have looked at regard what I am doing as pretty stupid, its just not cool.  So if what im doing does fall over in a big pile of dung there will be documented proof that the serious punters can direct some other crazy nut towards if they try what im doing.

 On the flip side, if it works it might help people thinking about doing something similar or give someone an opportunity to fine tune or improve this.

I just like the idea of being able to beat the betting agency and my mum said horse racing is a mugs game, Id like to buy her something nice from the mugs game.....

3 weeks worth of fav place system 29/10 - 21/11

21/11 15th day in a row profit.

Another meeting where it took me till the $250 bet to get a result and again lady luck smiled with a $2 place dividend. I should go buy a lottery ticket I think.....

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

19/11 14th day in a row profit.

Ive just hit $900 on my 14th day in a row of profit. I have a coaching course to study for so no more bets tonight.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

18/11 $51 profit

A new record of 13 winning days in a row. I will pop the screen shot on a bit later but the grand total is now up to $886.90 from the starting point of $500 3 weeks ago.

17/11 $4.70 profit

should have been a bit more but I called it quits part way in to a losing run as i was too knackered after a big weekend....

Monday, November 16, 2009

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

NZ v Bahrain World Cup qualifier....

NZ play Bahrain to see who qualifies for next years world cup. A score draw and Bahrain go through so NZ must win. The game in Wellington was sold out 3 weeks ago, the first ever sell out for a football game in NZ and the biggest crowd to a football game in NZ ever, 35,500.

So i take off tomorrow and wont be back till Monday. If we win and qualify I suspect I wont sober up till next week......

I cant bet on this one, I think we have about a 40% chance of success given that Bahrain are about 30 places ahead of NZ on the FIFA rankings and the fact they have as a team played so many games together. our side only gets to play a few games a year and the players come together from all over the world.

Still i can wait, its going to be an epic occasion no matter what the score.

See you next week.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Dodged a huge Bullet and made a big profit

Below is the reason why you lot should NOT copy what Im doing even though this time its come out very nicely for me. Hopefully seeing what has happened with me today will put anyone contemplating this method off. I need to have a good look at this all over again.

Im using my fav place system which has a very aggressive and very dangerous staking plan. The flip side is that I felt the probability risk was very low. The basic backbone of the staking plan was based around the fact that from historical data of the last years NZ racing there had never once been a case of a fav not coming in the first 3 place by the 6th race. A fav had always come through for a place result by the 5th race and that had only gone to the 5th race on a couple of occasions.

Today I got very lucky as at a meeting I was betting on the fav finally came through as a place bet in the 6th race.  My staking plan is this $1, $5, $20, $70 and $250 at which point I would stop and take the loss. The staking points are based on the need to recover and show a loss even if place dividends drop to $1.40. They can go lower but overall Im seeing both in historical records and as im doing this an average of about $1.50 to $1.60

The first race of this meeting came through for me and so i carried on with the rest of the meeting.  The  next race was a non result, that was the $1 bet. The following race was a non result which was the $5 bet. Just before I was about to place the $20 bet my sister dropped by to say hello so I missed making the bet. The horse i would have bet on which would have been my $70 bet also failed to finish in the top 3. If you have a look at the sequence and race numbers on the screen grab you will see this.

So I resume betting with a $70 bet on what normally would have been my $250 bet. the bet which I didnt think I would have to resort to very often. The fav again failed to finish in the top 3.

So my next bet which was my $250 bet but wouldnt have happened normally because I would have reset and started from scratch comes through. Not only that but it pays a $2 dividend giving me a big fat profit.

Lady Luck and my sister deserves some flowers at least.

Probability is a dangerous thing to mess with.....

Monday, November 9, 2009

10/11 $29.70 profit

I had set a small personal target of getting a profit of $150 for the month of November using the place system. Ive done $157.20 since I restarted which is well ahead of my target. of course it could all come falling down in the second half of November....

Sunday, November 8, 2009

9/11 $4.70 profit


Ive been out all day at footy coaching so only a couple of quick bets tonight before the scheduled races finish for the day. A fast $2.40 profit on 5 place bets. Balance up to $622.70

Saturday, November 7, 2009

7/11 $6.00

Friday, November 6, 2009

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Why I wouldnt recommend this system to anyone

During all my searching and reading on various websites and forums I have come across many warnings about how the process of chasing winners, probability based systems and bet doubling etc is dangerous and wont work.

The trouble has been that in all the various warnings I have come across very few have been explained clearly enough and with respect to my systems  they have ignored in the explanations my stop point for the bet doubling.

I will use my situation to hopefully make clear the dangers with what Im doing.

Firstly I had looked at something semi similar to what im doing many years ago, before the internet and before computers became household items.  The internet and computers gave me a hint of a way to do what I had looked at years ago of possibly being viable.

Here in NZ we have one betting agency the TAB and it handles all the betting on the harness racing, gallops and dog racing. On any typical day I can be betting on 4 to 5 race meetings being held around NZ. Australia is right next door, only a few hours flight and they have roughly 5 times our population and as far as I can see about 5 times as many race meetings on any typical day. So the opportunity to bet on multiple meetings is great as the TAB here also enables betting in Australia.

The local TV racing channel is excellent and its integration with the Australian race meetings is first class, races in both countries can be held back a few minutes if there are delays for any reason and the timing of races looks to be well set up so that the vast majority of races are able to be televised live. The importance of this is that within what i am doing I am able to place bets literally seconds before the race starts and this in turn means I have a very good chance of  betting on the money favourite and avoid most price plunges etc. Not always but for the most part.

So for consistency of my system it is important that i am betting as much as possible on the actual favourite, its not the end of the world if I dont but it does have an impact on its integrity in terms of the theory.

So a very quick recap, Im betting  on favourite wins till I get a result at a meeting. Once I get a win I move on to the next meeting, even if its the first race in a meeting.  I stop because there is a statistical chance that it may have been the only race the favourite comes through and wins.
If the favourite doesnt win I follow a staking plan which after the first 2 races basically doubles my bets. I do this until the 8th race and if I have had no results I reset, accepet the loss and start again. To simplify the explanation my staking plan would be on a $1 bas bet  $1,  $1,  $2,  $4,  $8,  $16,  $32 and finally $64.  Im doing this from the position of a bank base of $1000 ideally.  This means that if I do get a loss meeting the $128 I have lost is just on 1/8th of my base bank. If I had a base bank of $2000 I would start with a base bet of $2 and so on.

The reason for the stop point in the doubling process is that its quite probable for there to be no fav winners at a meeting and some meetings can have 10 races or even more. A sequence of 10 losses  would mean I had a loss of $512 which would be half my base bank wiped out.

The backbone of all of this is the statistic which is pretty well accepted that about 34% of all favourites will win.

The internet has been a huge help here in terms of research, both NZ and Australia have excellent historical records of race meetings which indicate favourites and dividends. This has meant I have been able to paper test the system using real historical records which has in term given me hope as the results have come out in the positive.

But here are where the dangers and flaws kick in.

Firstly paper testing the historical results doesnt factor in real world situations and problems. Those range from being interrupted by outside influences (phone calls, visitors, dropped internet connections) which can destroy a meetings flow. For example, and this has happened to me, say I am up to the 6th race in a meeting with no fav winning and I am getting ready to place a bet but am interrupted and miss the placing the bet i am looking at a loss so far of $24. Now say its a phone call and I miss the bet and then the fav actually wins the integrity of how I am doing this has been killed and what say that is the only fav to win in that meeting. ( its happened to me).

So the first flaw here is that I need to be able to follow an entire meeting without interruption or distraction.

BTW in my paper testing with the historical results i found between NZ and Australia going through every single meeting no fav win meetings were happening about 4 times a month which considering the high number of meetings  is reasonably rare. Off the top of my head and I shall check this it works out being  about 1 in 40 meetings.

The next flaw in the system is related to the above, the probability aspect. if I were able to bet every single meeting in both Australia and NZ and get the actual favourite every time even with the no fav win meetings the profits are pretty healthy. The trouble is that I cant and I doubt that there is yet the software available to do exactly that via automation.

So its quite probable that i might be able to go 6 months without hitting a single no fav win meeting just by the fact Im only actually betting on about 1/10th of all meetings and I simply miss the meetings it happens in.

However its also entirely probable that I may hit every meeting in a month in Aussie and NZ where the no fav win situation happens. there is of course that for example one weekend I might hit 4 no fav win meetings in the space of 2 days if I were unlucky enough to hit them as they appear. Its unlikely but its quite possible.

So the internet betting allows me to apply this system to multiple meetings each day in NZ and Australia which theoretically greatly increase the opportunity to make some decent profits.

It also unfortunately increases the chances that i hit the non fav win meetings because in real world terms Im unable to bet on every meeting taking place.

Its sort of like Russian Roulette.

I do have my stop betting trigger point of the 8th race and my staking plan is proportional to my bank and so far in my real world experience which is only 3 months old its worked quite well but the truth is this system is far from fool proof and is basically a gamble.

My fav place system is safer in terms of a far higher probabilty of getting the results I want but far far more dangerous in terms of wiping out any profits I have made and far harder to recover from.  Its taken me about 3 weeks to make what would take me less than a week to make with the fav win version. But a loss day with the place version would take me about 2 months to recover from. The historical stats make it highly unlikely for a loss day but  then there is some poor sod in the US who has been hit by lightning 7 times in his life......

So if anyone decides to copy what im doing or any variation please be completely aware that its far from perfect and I would bet people are better off trying to make systems work which are based on a sound knowledge of horse racing and understanding how to pick winners.

Finally, why am I doing it if its got this risky element to it?

Im having fun with it, Im doing pretty well so far, I have a couple of friends who are keeping track so that they can kick my arse if I end up developing a problem gambling habit and its quite simply a fun challenge to try and beat the book.....

I dont believe what Im doing and my system could provide a full time income.
At one point I had hopes it might be something I could make meaningful amounts of money out of but the reality factor has kicked in and the truth is it will only really be a little hobby on the side for me.

Hope that lot made sense.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Lots of bets for tiny profit. (initially)

A number of meetings in in Aussie and NZ so with an afternoon completely free I took on a meeting in Brisbane for the win/fav system as well as applying the place/fav system to Brisbane and other meetings.

Brisbane ended up not giving me a fav win or place till the 4th race which meant my win bets were $1, $1, $2 and $4 which had a $2.30 dividend giving me a marvelous $1.20 profit from the win fav side of the meeting.
Then on the place/fav side of things the bets were $1, $5, $20 and $70 with the dividend being $1.40 which gave me a stupendous profit of $2.00 so a grand $3.20 profit from the meeting so far. I will place bet the next couple of races and also place bet some other meetings for the rest of the evening.

The place/fav thing was supposed to give me some relief and confidence boosting results while i worked my way through the win/fav side of things but of course god decided to mess with me a bit......

Hey im not complaining though but a nice $3 or more win div and maybe a $1.60 or more place div would have made it more fun for me. As it is it will be another day ending in the positive. So far the "bank" is up to $571.80.

Final note, bet on a large number of races tonight and final healthy profit ended up being $45.70. "Bank" now sitting at $608. I would post a screen grab of all the bets for the night but there are about 3 screen grabs worth and im tired and cant be arsed so here is the final page of bets.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

3 place bets $12 profit

Only time for 3 place bets at Paeroa, 1st 2 horses didnt place, 3rd bet in sequence is $20 and the place divi was $1.9.

Have to get on with work and have footy coaching tonight so doubt I will get any others on.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Grabbed it back plus a bit

Melbourne Cup day means lots of gallops in NZ and Aussie. Gallops means higher place dividends than the harness racing which means less races to win more.
14 place bets for a profit of  $21.50 grabbing back the $9 lost yesterday.

$9 loss due to not following system

Only 3 bets, went bad right from first one. Firstly I placed a place bet on a meeting where I hadnt left enough races to win back from a loss.
Next race there was a super hot favourite with no place dividend on a  2 places result only and I went for a small win bet, it came second. then trying to recover from a small $4 loss quickly I went straight to a $5 place bet on a new meeting, it didnt come through.  The very next race at the meeting had a small field with only a 2 places dividends and yet another super hot fav with tiny dividends. I was annoyed at the previous dumb betting and decided to go watch tv instead.  Im sure I could have recovered but wasnt in the right frame of mind to  keep at it. Basically I would say that 90% to 95% of my losses come from stupidity on my part or being interrupted during the process.

Annoying because I had gone 9 winning days in a row.


Sunday, November 1, 2009


5 races place betting $9.30 profit

Back Fitting or Back testing?

Im familiar with the term back fitting and have been guilty of it in the past and possibly even right now. The way i understand it is that its when one fiddles with data to make a system work.

One thing I have been doing is using historical records on the local (NZ and Aussie) racing websites to test if my systems will work. So basically I have my win/fav system with the bet doubling and stop protection mechanism and I put all the results from the last year or sometimes 2 years into a spreadsheet and see how it works. To my mind thats not back fitting, thats back testing.

With respect to my fav/place system I did the same thing with respect to inputting all that data into a spreadsheet and applying rules but in this case I then fiddled with the staking process till I got positive outcomes. So that to me would be back fitting?

Except for one thing, I was trying to find out an appropriate staking plan to make it viable (well not viable in terms of making a living). So am I back fitting here or working out an appropriate staking plan based around the fact that I know the place dividends are so low but the frequency of positive returns is reasonably frequent.

Im 50/50 on this. I think its back fitting but not done to delude myself if that makes sense. However thats debatable....

I have started to write a posting about how my fav/win system can work but also how in real world terms it wont work. The trouble Im having is putting it down in a coherent manner. I have been researching this probability based process for months and months, and have had plenty of great advice from people via forums and emails but never anything that truely showed me where it falls down. I think I have a handle now on  a particular weakness and as soon as I come up with a coherent explanation I will put it down here.

1st Nov

$9.00 profit