Thursday, December 31, 2009

1-1-2010 Big start to the new year

$149.80 winnings today giving me a balance of 1638.30.
Both win/fav and place/fav systems used today as well as increased staking has resulted in my 3rd best day ever. Next week when I withdraw $1000 for the car repairs instead of having a bank of about $500 to start again with I will hopefully have $600 or more which gives me just a hint more of a lift.

 On top of that I checked my records and I have now had 1 losing day in the last 45 days of betting.






Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Happy New Year....last little burst

Happy New Year to Everyone.
A few bets here and there over the last few days, nearly got to $1500 by the end of the year but didnt really try that hard. Will be starting again in the new year with a $500 balance.

Cheers
Mike


Monday, December 28, 2009

Time to withdraw some winnings

I was mulling over the idea of simply letting the balance build and then as appropriate increase my staking but I have decided that now is a good time to withdraw some of the winnings and use them to some panel and paint work on my car which needs some TLC. The car goes in for repair next week and the estimate is for about $1200 so thanks to the TAB for covering this. I will start again with a balance of $500 in the new year  and start again.

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Thats it for 2009

112 days of betting graph. I started using the place/fav system from day 49 almost exclusively. Just recently I have used the win/fav system a couple of times and next year I plan to try and use that a little more and combine its use with the place/fav system. Ive had a pretty lucky run and most of my loss days have been where I have made mistakes or lacked discipline with respect with sticking to my system. I do expect to be tripped up by the odd true loss day but Im pretty comfortable now that what im doing actually works. The down side is that the place system is quite limited to how much I can make due to the aggressive staking plan and its impact on dividends if I try and go bigger, not to mention the risk factor. The next trick is to try and work out how to automate this within the restrictions of the NZ TAB website. The other trick is to make sure im having fun with it and its not a chore.

Hope everyone has a great New Year and thanks for all the advice.
Cheers
Mike


Saturday, December 26, 2009

Balance at $1459.40

Balance on the face of it looks good but it should have been a whole lot better. I didnt follow my own system rules and ended up losing $96 because of it. Luckily however there was a decent days betting and I made a total profit of $12.50 after the loss. I should be looking at a balance of nearly $1550.00.  So a long day in front of the computer and tv and a lot of bets gives me $12.50 when if not for a lack of discipline on my part it could have been a $110.00 day.
Basically I got spooked on a meetings betting and when i got to the 4th bet, the $70 bet, the tote was telling me that it was $1 for the place and $1.60 for the win. I know the tote changes 30 seconds after the race starts and I know from experience that they usually give me a safe return dividend of maybe $1.40 at worst but for some silly reason I went for a $70 win bet and the horse came second... and paid $1.40 for the place....
Anyway, Im off for work for 2 days photographing a couple of cafe's etc on an island called Waiheke here in Aucklands waterways. I had hoped to sneak my way to $1500 by the years end but that wont happen. Still happy to sit with the balance I have.

Friday, December 25, 2009

Boxing Day $40.30

Balance $1446.90 





Thursday, December 24, 2009

24-12 $27.70

$27.70 Balance to $1406.60

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

23/12 $17.90

Balance to $1378.90




Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Monday, December 21, 2009

22/12 $17.00

Balance at $1361.50

21/12 $11.80

Balance $1344.50

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Automated Betting?

Has anyone had any experience with automated betting? I think there are tools called bots that can be programmed to bet for you? Do these things actually exist?

20/12 $9.00


Friday, December 18, 2009

19/12 $16.50

Total balance up to $1323.70

Thursday, December 17, 2009

17/12 $8.20

Just a few more today, not much time to bet with work etc taking up my time.  Total up to  $1307.20



Wednesday, December 16, 2009

16/12 $15.10 profit

not much betting action, its that time of year, quick little burst tonight. Overall balance is $1299.00
Edited from original posting, and extra $11 picked up from 2 bets in Hong Kong



Saturday, December 12, 2009

100 days betting graph


13/12 $60.50 Profit

I think this now means I have recovered everything from the big loss I had last week. On top of that I have just spotted on my records that today was my 100th day of actual betting days.


Friday, December 11, 2009

12/12 $5.20 profit

Another quiet one, total balance is at $1223.20

Thursday, December 10, 2009

10/12 $7.80 profit

Just a few bets tonight, probably be light betting from here till xmas.
Total balance $1218.20

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

8/12 $68.70 profit

Bizarre win with my last race. Greyhounds, win dividend was $1.20 and the place dividend was $2.10, luckily for me I was on the place bet.


Monday, December 7, 2009

7/12 $28.60 profit


Friday, December 4, 2009

5/12 another tough day

Currently down about $20 due to very low dividends on some results.  A little bit of time to go and i am poised to end up with small profit, fingers crossed. 2 tough days in a row is hard work, its all been gallops so far today and usually the dividends are higher but I have to admit to enjoying the harness racing more despite the usually lower dividends and profits from place results.

Update, back to a $31.20 profit, balance up to $1113.10

The fact I got a profit hides how many bets and how hard this $31.20 was to get. This isnt a way to earn an income if anyone is wondering. Now i just have another 23 winning days in a row to make to break my previous record...

4/12 Ouch big loss

Well at some point it had to happen. With the dangerous staking plan any loss day i have is possibly going to be a big one. Im still going with a few more races left tonight but currently I have a $290 loss. I was actually $40 up on the night.  The frustrating part is that its not so much a case of my system/rules breaking down but more a case of external influences screwing me over. Unexpected visitors at just the wrong time interrupting sequences.
  But thats all part of it and I have had a great run and I have had bad loss days in the past so i will get over this.  So my balance has slipped just under $1000, we will see where it ends up by the time all tonights betting is over.

Update, end of betting I recovered some and the loss for the night came to $159.80. The recovery came via the win/fav system with a $64 bet at $4.20 grabbing back a decent chunk.  Still a frustrating evening, I dont think it would bother me if it were a case of the system failing me. I had a great run of 23 days in a row but my first loss day is basically down to external influences interrupting my sequence. I had hoped to get to $1500 by xmas but I dont think that will happen now, still you never know...

So my total balance sits at $1080.90




Tuesday, December 1, 2009

2/12 $24.90 profit

23 days in a row of winning.


1st Dec $4.10

A funny one tonight, lots of little bets but only $4.10 profit. Similar number of bets last night for over $100. Sometimes the dividends and results all line up nicely, sometimes they dont.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

30/11 Couldnt resist one the last day in Nov

20 days in a row of Profit, $107.40 today taking me over $700 for the month of November.  I doubt I will be able to repeat this feat in December as i have a fair amount of work and the usual xmas social events which will stop me betting as much. Also summer has arrived and over the next few months I should be outside a bit more so i am trying to work out a reasonable target which right now looks like being about $250 for December. We shall see....


Saturday, November 28, 2009

29/11 19th day in a row profit

$17, again not feeling great so not too many bets, have hit $1100 and nearly $600 for the month. I now have a small dilemma, do I just let this balance roll on or do i withdraw $600 and start from $500 for December.  By leaving the balance to run I will have enough of a bank to cover doing both the win/fav  and place/fav systems. I quite like this idea as I need to be brave enough to just go for it and believe the systems will both work.  My mindset has changed a bit in the last few weeks, I do believe the place/fav system has merit and with its very consistent positive results has given me some confidence.
Anyway thats me for the Month of November



Below is a quick graph of my last 90 days betting, a running total graph. Hope it makes sense.



Friday, November 27, 2009

28/11 18th day in a row profit

$16 today, I used a mixture of my place fav system and the win fav system. Today the place dividends were lower than usual which balances out some luck I have had recently with higher than usual place dividend pay outs.
Been sick for a few days, still not right but I have a couple more days till the end of November and need $18 to break $600 profit for the month.
Fingers crossed.


Tuesday, November 24, 2009

25/11 17th day in a row profit

Ive been sick for a couple of days but did manage a few bets yesterday, have to admit I was on auto pilot and stopped after a short while. Only a $3.50 profit.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

22/11 16th day in a row of profit


Alex at http://every-loser-wins.blogspot.com/ made an interesting point

Alex at http://every-loser-wins.blogspot.com/ made an interesting point about how often people post to their blogs. I guess  we all have different levels of interest in posting or reasons.

Everytime I log on to do some betting I check what all the people on the blogs I follow have been doing. to be honest half the time it all looks like gibberish to me, not their thoughts but the betting, lays, trades etc etc simply because everyone posting that stuff has a far more intimate knowledge and understanding of betting. However I still check out whats happening because I like reading about other peoples success. I dont enjoy when others have loss days but I do get a kick out of recoveries.

I post every time I bet because I want to keep track of what Im doing, there is an inherent fear of what happened to a good friend of mine who lost everything with a gambling addiction.

Also I realize that what im doing is quite different from everyone else and also that most of the serious punters on all the forums I have looked at regard what I am doing as pretty stupid, its just not cool.  So if what im doing does fall over in a big pile of dung there will be documented proof that the serious punters can direct some other crazy nut towards if they try what im doing.

 On the flip side, if it works it might help people thinking about doing something similar or give someone an opportunity to fine tune or improve this.

I just like the idea of being able to beat the betting agency and my mum said horse racing is a mugs game, Id like to buy her something nice from the mugs game.....

3 weeks worth of fav place system 29/10 - 21/11


21/11 15th day in a row profit.

Another meeting where it took me till the $250 bet to get a result and again lady luck smiled with a $2 place dividend. I should go buy a lottery ticket I think.....


Wednesday, November 18, 2009

19/11 14th day in a row profit.

Ive just hit $900 on my 14th day in a row of profit. I have a coaching course to study for so no more bets tonight.


Tuesday, November 17, 2009

18/11 $51 profit

A new record of 13 winning days in a row. I will pop the screen shot on a bit later but the grand total is now up to $886.90 from the starting point of $500 3 weeks ago.


17/11 $4.70 profit

should have been a bit more but I called it quits part way in to a losing run as i was too knackered after a big weekend....


Monday, November 16, 2009

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

NZ v Bahrain World Cup qualifier....

NZ play Bahrain to see who qualifies for next years world cup. A score draw and Bahrain go through so NZ must win. The game in Wellington was sold out 3 weeks ago, the first ever sell out for a football game in NZ and the biggest crowd to a football game in NZ ever, 35,500.

So i take off tomorrow and wont be back till Monday. If we win and qualify I suspect I wont sober up till next week......

I cant bet on this one, I think we have about a 40% chance of success given that Bahrain are about 30 places ahead of NZ on the FIFA rankings and the fact they have as a team played so many games together. our side only gets to play a few games a year and the players come together from all over the world.

Still i can wait, its going to be an epic occasion no matter what the score.

See you next week.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Dodged a huge Bullet and made a big profit

Below is the reason why you lot should NOT copy what Im doing even though this time its come out very nicely for me. Hopefully seeing what has happened with me today will put anyone contemplating this method off. I need to have a good look at this all over again.

Im using my fav place system which has a very aggressive and very dangerous staking plan. The flip side is that I felt the probability risk was very low. The basic backbone of the staking plan was based around the fact that from historical data of the last years NZ racing there had never once been a case of a fav not coming in the first 3 place by the 6th race. A fav had always come through for a place result by the 5th race and that had only gone to the 5th race on a couple of occasions.

Today I got very lucky as at a meeting I was betting on the fav finally came through as a place bet in the 6th race.  My staking plan is this $1, $5, $20, $70 and $250 at which point I would stop and take the loss. The staking points are based on the need to recover and show a loss even if place dividends drop to $1.40. They can go lower but overall Im seeing both in historical records and as im doing this an average of about $1.50 to $1.60

The first race of this meeting came through for me and so i carried on with the rest of the meeting.  The  next race was a non result, that was the $1 bet. The following race was a non result which was the $5 bet. Just before I was about to place the $20 bet my sister dropped by to say hello so I missed making the bet. The horse i would have bet on which would have been my $70 bet also failed to finish in the top 3. If you have a look at the sequence and race numbers on the screen grab you will see this.

So I resume betting with a $70 bet on what normally would have been my $250 bet. the bet which I didnt think I would have to resort to very often. The fav again failed to finish in the top 3.

So my next bet which was my $250 bet but wouldnt have happened normally because I would have reset and started from scratch comes through. Not only that but it pays a $2 dividend giving me a big fat profit.

Lady Luck and my sister deserves some flowers at least.

Probability is a dangerous thing to mess with.....


Monday, November 9, 2009

10/11 $29.70 profit

I had set a small personal target of getting a profit of $150 for the month of November using the place system. Ive done $157.20 since I restarted which is well ahead of my target. of course it could all come falling down in the second half of November....


Sunday, November 8, 2009

9/11 $4.70 profit


8/11

Ive been out all day at footy coaching so only a couple of quick bets tonight before the scheduled races finish for the day. A fast $2.40 profit on 5 place bets. Balance up to $622.70

Saturday, November 7, 2009

7/11 $6.00


Friday, November 6, 2009

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Why I wouldnt recommend this system to anyone

During all my searching and reading on various websites and forums I have come across many warnings about how the process of chasing winners, probability based systems and bet doubling etc is dangerous and wont work.

The trouble has been that in all the various warnings I have come across very few have been explained clearly enough and with respect to my systems  they have ignored in the explanations my stop point for the bet doubling.

I will use my situation to hopefully make clear the dangers with what Im doing.

Firstly I had looked at something semi similar to what im doing many years ago, before the internet and before computers became household items.  The internet and computers gave me a hint of a way to do what I had looked at years ago of possibly being viable.

Here in NZ we have one betting agency the TAB and it handles all the betting on the harness racing, gallops and dog racing. On any typical day I can be betting on 4 to 5 race meetings being held around NZ. Australia is right next door, only a few hours flight and they have roughly 5 times our population and as far as I can see about 5 times as many race meetings on any typical day. So the opportunity to bet on multiple meetings is great as the TAB here also enables betting in Australia.

The local TV racing channel is excellent and its integration with the Australian race meetings is first class, races in both countries can be held back a few minutes if there are delays for any reason and the timing of races looks to be well set up so that the vast majority of races are able to be televised live. The importance of this is that within what i am doing I am able to place bets literally seconds before the race starts and this in turn means I have a very good chance of  betting on the money favourite and avoid most price plunges etc. Not always but for the most part.

So for consistency of my system it is important that i am betting as much as possible on the actual favourite, its not the end of the world if I dont but it does have an impact on its integrity in terms of the theory.

So a very quick recap, Im betting  on favourite wins till I get a result at a meeting. Once I get a win I move on to the next meeting, even if its the first race in a meeting.  I stop because there is a statistical chance that it may have been the only race the favourite comes through and wins.
If the favourite doesnt win I follow a staking plan which after the first 2 races basically doubles my bets. I do this until the 8th race and if I have had no results I reset, accepet the loss and start again. To simplify the explanation my staking plan would be on a $1 bas bet  $1,  $1,  $2,  $4,  $8,  $16,  $32 and finally $64.  Im doing this from the position of a bank base of $1000 ideally.  This means that if I do get a loss meeting the $128 I have lost is just on 1/8th of my base bank. If I had a base bank of $2000 I would start with a base bet of $2 and so on.

The reason for the stop point in the doubling process is that its quite probable for there to be no fav winners at a meeting and some meetings can have 10 races or even more. A sequence of 10 losses  would mean I had a loss of $512 which would be half my base bank wiped out.

The backbone of all of this is the statistic which is pretty well accepted that about 34% of all favourites will win.

The internet has been a huge help here in terms of research, both NZ and Australia have excellent historical records of race meetings which indicate favourites and dividends. This has meant I have been able to paper test the system using real historical records which has in term given me hope as the results have come out in the positive.

But here are where the dangers and flaws kick in.

Firstly paper testing the historical results doesnt factor in real world situations and problems. Those range from being interrupted by outside influences (phone calls, visitors, dropped internet connections) which can destroy a meetings flow. For example, and this has happened to me, say I am up to the 6th race in a meeting with no fav winning and I am getting ready to place a bet but am interrupted and miss the placing the bet i am looking at a loss so far of $24. Now say its a phone call and I miss the bet and then the fav actually wins the integrity of how I am doing this has been killed and what say that is the only fav to win in that meeting. ( its happened to me).

So the first flaw here is that I need to be able to follow an entire meeting without interruption or distraction.

BTW in my paper testing with the historical results i found between NZ and Australia going through every single meeting no fav win meetings were happening about 4 times a month which considering the high number of meetings  is reasonably rare. Off the top of my head and I shall check this it works out being  about 1 in 40 meetings.

The next flaw in the system is related to the above, the probability aspect. if I were able to bet every single meeting in both Australia and NZ and get the actual favourite every time even with the no fav win meetings the profits are pretty healthy. The trouble is that I cant and I doubt that there is yet the software available to do exactly that via automation.

So its quite probable that i might be able to go 6 months without hitting a single no fav win meeting just by the fact Im only actually betting on about 1/10th of all meetings and I simply miss the meetings it happens in.

However its also entirely probable that I may hit every meeting in a month in Aussie and NZ where the no fav win situation happens. there is of course that for example one weekend I might hit 4 no fav win meetings in the space of 2 days if I were unlucky enough to hit them as they appear. Its unlikely but its quite possible.

So the internet betting allows me to apply this system to multiple meetings each day in NZ and Australia which theoretically greatly increase the opportunity to make some decent profits.

It also unfortunately increases the chances that i hit the non fav win meetings because in real world terms Im unable to bet on every meeting taking place.

Its sort of like Russian Roulette.

I do have my stop betting trigger point of the 8th race and my staking plan is proportional to my bank and so far in my real world experience which is only 3 months old its worked quite well but the truth is this system is far from fool proof and is basically a gamble.

My fav place system is safer in terms of a far higher probabilty of getting the results I want but far far more dangerous in terms of wiping out any profits I have made and far harder to recover from.  Its taken me about 3 weeks to make what would take me less than a week to make with the fav win version. But a loss day with the place version would take me about 2 months to recover from. The historical stats make it highly unlikely for a loss day but  then there is some poor sod in the US who has been hit by lightning 7 times in his life......

So if anyone decides to copy what im doing or any variation please be completely aware that its far from perfect and I would bet people are better off trying to make systems work which are based on a sound knowledge of horse racing and understanding how to pick winners.

Finally, why am I doing it if its got this risky element to it?

Im having fun with it, Im doing pretty well so far, I have a couple of friends who are keeping track so that they can kick my arse if I end up developing a problem gambling habit and its quite simply a fun challenge to try and beat the book.....

I dont believe what Im doing and my system could provide a full time income.
At one point I had hopes it might be something I could make meaningful amounts of money out of but the reality factor has kicked in and the truth is it will only really be a little hobby on the side for me.

Hope that lot made sense.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Lots of bets for tiny profit. (initially)

A number of meetings in in Aussie and NZ so with an afternoon completely free I took on a meeting in Brisbane for the win/fav system as well as applying the place/fav system to Brisbane and other meetings.

Brisbane ended up not giving me a fav win or place till the 4th race which meant my win bets were $1, $1, $2 and $4 which had a $2.30 dividend giving me a marvelous $1.20 profit from the win fav side of the meeting.
Then on the place/fav side of things the bets were $1, $5, $20 and $70 with the dividend being $1.40 which gave me a stupendous profit of $2.00 so a grand $3.20 profit from the meeting so far. I will place bet the next couple of races and also place bet some other meetings for the rest of the evening.

The place/fav thing was supposed to give me some relief and confidence boosting results while i worked my way through the win/fav side of things but of course god decided to mess with me a bit......

Hey im not complaining though but a nice $3 or more win div and maybe a $1.60 or more place div would have made it more fun for me. As it is it will be another day ending in the positive. So far the "bank" is up to $571.80.


Final note, bet on a large number of races tonight and final healthy profit ended up being $45.70. "Bank" now sitting at $608. I would post a screen grab of all the bets for the night but there are about 3 screen grabs worth and im tired and cant be arsed so here is the final page of bets.


Tuesday, November 3, 2009

3 place bets $12 profit

Only time for 3 place bets at Paeroa, 1st 2 horses didnt place, 3rd bet in sequence is $20 and the place divi was $1.9.

Have to get on with work and have footy coaching tonight so doubt I will get any others on.


Monday, November 2, 2009

Grabbed it back plus a bit

Melbourne Cup day means lots of gallops in NZ and Aussie. Gallops means higher place dividends than the harness racing which means less races to win more.
14 place bets for a profit of  $21.50 grabbing back the $9 lost yesterday.


$9 loss due to not following system

Only 3 bets, went bad right from first one. Firstly I placed a place bet on a meeting where I hadnt left enough races to win back from a loss.
Next race there was a super hot favourite with no place dividend on a  2 places result only and I went for a small win bet, it came second. then trying to recover from a small $4 loss quickly I went straight to a $5 place bet on a new meeting, it didnt come through.  The very next race at the meeting had a small field with only a 2 places dividends and yet another super hot fav with tiny dividends. I was annoyed at the previous dumb betting and decided to go watch tv instead.  Im sure I could have recovered but wasnt in the right frame of mind to  keep at it. Basically I would say that 90% to 95% of my losses come from stupidity on my part or being interrupted during the process.

Annoying because I had gone 9 winning days in a row.

Dumbarse.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

$9.30




5 races place betting $9.30 profit


Back Fitting or Back testing?

Im familiar with the term back fitting and have been guilty of it in the past and possibly even right now. The way i understand it is that its when one fiddles with data to make a system work.

One thing I have been doing is using historical records on the local (NZ and Aussie) racing websites to test if my systems will work. So basically I have my win/fav system with the bet doubling and stop protection mechanism and I put all the results from the last year or sometimes 2 years into a spreadsheet and see how it works. To my mind thats not back fitting, thats back testing.

With respect to my fav/place system I did the same thing with respect to inputting all that data into a spreadsheet and applying rules but in this case I then fiddled with the staking process till I got positive outcomes. So that to me would be back fitting?

Except for one thing, I was trying to find out an appropriate staking plan to make it viable (well not viable in terms of making a living). So am I back fitting here or working out an appropriate staking plan based around the fact that I know the place dividends are so low but the frequency of positive returns is reasonably frequent.

Im 50/50 on this. I think its back fitting but not done to delude myself if that makes sense. However thats debatable....

I have started to write a posting about how my fav/win system can work but also how in real world terms it wont work. The trouble Im having is putting it down in a coherent manner. I have been researching this probability based process for months and months, and have had plenty of great advice from people via forums and emails but never anything that truely showed me where it falls down. I think I have a handle now on  a particular weakness and as soon as I come up with a coherent explanation I will put it down here.

1st Nov

$9.00 profit


Saturday, October 31, 2009

NZ Under 17 footy team!

Ive been out all day at footy training and I get home, play the recording of NZ's under 17 boys teams last game at the Under 17 world cup and we are 1-0 down in the 91st minute when we score a stunning equalizer. So what? Well it means the the NZ team qualify from the group stages to the knock out section, so what? Well its the first time any NZ footy team has ever got past the group stage at any FIFA tournament.
Big day for footy fans in a rugby mad country.


btw at the footy trials there was a young girl who showed up with a Liverpool kit on and the name Torres on her shirt. I gave her a teasing about it and then discovered she was the outstanding trialist on show. She got the highest score from all the selectors which just goes to show you should never judge a book by its cover..... hahahahaha

Quick note on the footy.

Aberdeen lost 2-0 at home but on the good news front Torquay won and the dream of staying in the 2nd div is still alive. I know its early in the season but Torquay have a tough job ahead of them.

And just to wind up all you Liverpool boys out there, you were already 2-1 down before the sending offs. Liverpool fans blind loyalty to the cause means they just dont see the bigger picture, its an admirable trait but misguided.

I remember the Liverpool of the 70's and 80's and you lot used to be the team people would watch because the quality was so great and the style was attractive to watch. Sorry but its awful football these days and Liverpool have no depth to their squad despite the huge number of players going through the revolving door at liverpool.

Rafa, its simple, get your team to pass pass pass and pass some more and nothing lofted, keep it on the deck, the sky is for the birds.

Im not a Liverpool fan so why do I care? Well Liverpool used to be a great team to watch, now  they are like watching Bolton. Its ugly and nobody likes ugly.

31/10

Im not blindly using the fav win system, to make that work I need to make sure I eliminate the errors at my end and one of the main culprits was interruptions during a meeting which caused me to miss key bets. So if I dont think I am going to have a few hours during a meeting where I am uninterrupted i will just use the fav place system.
 Yesterday I had football coaching during the day  and then last night I wanted to watch the Frost/Nixon movie on tv so I used the fav place system for all the races while I switched  between the movie and the 30 seconds before a race started to make a bet.  $4.60 profit on the night. Today I have a day of football representative selecting and will miss a fair number of meetings before I finish so tonight will also end up being place fav betting only.


Friday, October 30, 2009

30/10

8 races $3.10 profit, didnt take too long and went out for the evening. A pretty fleeting effort tonight.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Ive made this mistake before...

Listening to pundits before a race starts....

I had the fav checked to pop a place bet on and the tv is running and 4 racing pundits all were adamant that another horse would win. They each gave to my inexperienced ear very compelling reasons why a horse was going to win that race. Seeing that the dividends on offer were reasonably close between the fav and the pundit recommendation I decided to go with their pick. Of course the horse came stone motherless last. Do they do this on purpose??? Is it fixed? its not the first time I have seen this.

My Blog List...

Its kind of huge to be honest...
I do however as part of my morning ritual with a cup of coffee browse all the ones which were recently updated. I had absolutely no idea there were so many people out there doing this stuff and there are some great reads among them too. Lots of variation on what and how people are doing things, some great advice too.

Cheers.

Gentle start

10 races bet on tonight and $6.10 profit. I should be able to retire by the year 2123


Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Slight changes

Ok most of you are betting/trading on a more serious scale than me and my approach relies on probabilty and statistics which throws up a few problems. Firstly because I only bet on a meeting till I get a win I have the problem of not betting on the rest of a meeting when a horse comes in for me on the 1st race. That seems like an awful waste of opportunity with 8 or more races not bet on. I cant change the win bet strategy I have simply because as I have found out in the past sometimes there is only 1 fav winner in a race meeting and it might just have been the first race.
So I have come up with a way based on place betting to enable me to continue betting on a race meeting after my horse has won. Its pretty much a variation on what I am doing with the win betting where I increase the stake each time after I dont get a result until I do get a result, also with a stop point. Now because place dividends are so low I have had to increase my stakes dramatically to make sure the process returns a profit.

So my sequence of stakes are $1, $5, $15, $45, $135, $400.  Now the manner that these increases sends out alarm signals, what if the $400 bet doesnt come through, thats quite a loss to deal with. Well I went through the NZ racing board website results for the last 2 years and never once came up with a race meeting where the favourite didnt come in for a place by the 6th race, in fact only 3 times in 2 years did it get to the point of going as far as the 5th race. So essentially I am gambling heavily on the fact that having to place a $400 place bet is extremely unlikely. Its possible and Im prepared for that but its extremely unlikely. I also casually went through the Australian racing board results and didnt see any 6th race events and also very few 5th race events. We will see what happens here. Every system has its flaws I think. But thats betting/gambling isnt it? Although most of you are trading with betfair which looks like a different kettle of fish.

The other slight change here is that via my win bet process my first 2 bets for a meeting will be each way bets. This will help me to snatch a few more pennies from the first or second race wins I get which come up more frequently than other races, after the first 2 races I will then go back to betting wins and places seperately. Sounds complicated? probably is but I have my little spreadsheets set up to keep the idiot in me mostly controlled.

The other main thing is trying to make sure that I can eliminate individual errors. Thats where about 90% of my losses have come from and there have only been a few times where the probability side has actually kicked me in the butt.

One last thing is the psychology element. Chasing winners is a little stressful at times but the place result side comes in very frequently. The returns are tiny but it does help to keep me upbeat.

Anyway only a few races bet on tonight, I only went down the place system side of it and from 6 races made $3.20. While I havent been betting money over the last few weeks I have been mucking around with  an imaginary bank and the place thing while giving tiny returns per race did end up providing just on $100 for the last 2 weeks.  It means I can happily bet on multiple meetings confident that i am going to be heading in the positve direction.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Ok im back

Righto, back in to it.  Im having to start with a smaller bank because instead of using the football coaching money for this "venture" I ended up buying a new mac for work with it. So the restart bank is $500, it was going to be about $3000 but I really needed the new mac, my new camera pumps out far too big files for my old mac to handle. Also I have a fair amount of evening football coaching about to start up and I wont be able to bet as many meetings as i had been.
There is a slight change going to happen to what I do with place bets having their own little system which is not much of an earner but a consistent winner, I will elaborate shortly.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Sods law...

While Im not betting at present I am still keeping track of the racing stats and as luck would have it over the last week in the race meetings I would have bet on there has been the unusual occurrence of 3 meetings with the fav not winning till the 7th race. What does that mean to me? Well basically it means that if I had been betting on the meetings this week I would have been looking at a profit of about $510 for the week..... bugger.


In the meantime I have come up with another system based around my current one but this time using place bets. In the testing using historical data and also over the last week it works very well in terms of successes however its very conservative in terms of winnings.  When Im ready to start up again Im going to run two accounts at the TAB, one for the win bet system and one for the place bet system.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Footy bet

I still havent replaced the TAB account money yet, waiting on a payment for a job but there is a small amount left in the account so decided to have a small punt on the footy.

Had a close look at the world cup qualifiers and being a football fanatic couldnt help myself. Bet on the Uruguay and Argentina game and was quite amazed at the odds on offer.

Despite Maradona's record so far and the British press conscious or subconscious desire for him to fail Argentina are a team full of superb players and for them to miss out on an automatic qualifying spot simply wouldnt happen. I do wonder if the bias against Maradona in the press has an impact on the bookies odds. Argentina hadnt been playing well and Uruguay are a good side with some talented players but I really couldnt see Argentina losing. Add in the last second heroics of the last game for Argentina and you are looking at a side with rising confidence.

So I did the dutch betting thing on Argentina to win or draw with the odds at $2.45 for an Argentina win and $3.20 for the draw  and with Argentina winning came out with a small $5 win overall.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

A quick thanks!

Thanks to those who offer thoughts and advice. Im completely new to all this and I will no doubt ask lots of dumb questions in the future but I take all comments and advice seriously.
Cheers

Monday, October 12, 2009

Footy Betting question???

For those of you betting on the football... I think most of you are trading rather than straight out betting but how many of you have looked at applying the Dutch betting system using two bookies. I have been looking at this and found that the bookies sort their odds on a game so that you cant use the Dutch betting system but if you take the odds at one bookie on team A and the odds on team B at another bookie you can end up with a garaunteed profit.
I suspect Im missing something important here as it seems too good to be true.

For example

Lithuania V Serbia this weekend.

TAB in NZ has $3.50 Lithuania and $2.00 Serbia

TABonline Aussie has  $3.00 Lithuania and $2.15 serbia

So if I were to take the NZ TAB odds for Lithuania and the Aussie TAB odds for serbia I could apply the Dutch betting sytem and get a positive outcome.


Lithuania 5/2 desired profit£20.00 stake£24.00 £84.00 Profit £20.00
Serbia 11/10 £20.00 £40.00 £84.00 £20.00
    Total Stake = £64.00      


Im sure i must be missing something here....

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Have to suspend betting for a week or so

For those of you out there who know what its like being self employed can be a battle at times. I have just had a client go belly up owing me a decent little sum of money. Nothing which will cause me too much grief but enough that Im scrambling for money to pay a few bills. I have the choice of breaking a term deposit or raiding what i have made from this venture and its going to be raiding this account.  I will be able to replace it in about a week. The up side of course is if I hadnt made what I have on this over the last 7 or 8 weeks I would have had to break a term deposit.

The glass is always half full in my world :-)

1st no Fav win meeting

Quick summary of tonights balls up....


I had the first true no favourite winning meeting since I started all this about 8 weeks ago. I also had 2 meetings that I got spooked on and pulled out of at the 4th race taking relatively modest losses. Both meetings were Harness meetings which i have said I wouldnt bet on because of low dividend issues, well these two meetings did produce fav winners after i stopped but they wouldnt have helped much because they had very low win dividends. So I have had an $83 loss because of 1 true no fav win meeting and my own lack of following my own rules... On the positive I did manage my losses well on the no fav win meeting and instead of that meeting giving me a $128 loss it produced only a $65 loss. The other $18 from tonight  came from me being a dumbarse.  


Im about 7 weeks in and still learning all the little tricks and quirks of making my system work.  Bugger.




Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Ok some help here please....

Ok, now as most are aware Im pretty new to this whole horse racing thing so forgive me if this appears to be the dumbest most basic of all questions....

Im doing some research on quinella chances in dog racing but every now and then i come across recorded odds that arent as easy for a noob like me to understand. Normally the odds here are portrayed as 1/1 2/2 3/3 etc.
Can you guys look at the 2 screen shots for me and tell me what are the 1st 2nd and 3rd favourites in each screenshot and also add an explanation. Pretend I have the brain of a small goldfish when you explain it.... hahahaha.



  

Oct 6

$8.60 yesterday, $8.30 today. Nothing too exciting, at some point I will increase my bank and start betting with a higher base bet, maybe about 5 times what Im doing now. I just need to keep going and satisfy myself that I have a certain level of comfort and consistency.

Having trouble  uploading a screenshot for today, will try later.

 Bank total up to $1017.90.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Greyhound racing????

Anybody bother with the greyhounds? I had looked at it in the past but found the dividends too low to work within my system and I really didnt like how often collisions  impacted on races.
However I have found the local greyhound associations website with results for the last couple of years and  they include the odds for the races. Im currently popping all this info into my spread sheet tester and it appears  doing quinellas for the two top favs within my system might work quite well. We shall see....

Staking Plan - Betting Ratio's

Ok so I am using my own variation of the dreaded Martingale sequence but with a stopping point for protection of my bank and also with the ability to allow me to vary how much i bet based on how I feel a race meeting is panning out.
However along with that I have had to work out how much I want to bet relative to my bank. Ultimately I have come up with the ratio's below. Early on I was using a ratio that was a bit riskier in terms of eating into my bank if i had a loss day based on a no fav win meeting.
The base ratio's I have come up with are probably a bit conservative but the amusing thing is that the longer this goes on the more protective I have become of my bank. Sort of a case where I have worked hard to get it to this level and I really cant stand losing any of it at all.

I have set the limit of races in a row I will bet on without a win to 8. That came about from research using historic data of race meetings here in NZ and Australia going back for 12 months. I found if I used a 7 race stop point I made a certain profit but if I was brave and went 1 more I made a considerable gain over 7 races. This isnt foolproof however as the stats and probability Im basing this on could be different in a years time. There is a trade off of course and that is the fact that now I am making less per bet on the 1st and 2nd race fav wins.
I will take another look at this situation in about a month or so.

Hope it makes sense.


Sunday, October 4, 2009

New Target

Ok my new target isnt a number, its to reduce errors. Looking at my records of September I find that I had 12 days where I made a loss which surprised me. Especially since I was able to take $382 out of the account and deposit in a bank account. Every loss day i had from my notes can be attributed to some mistake I have made. So knocking back the mistakes in my betting should help improve my winnings.

Mon 5th October, sticking to the rules....

1st race up on the NZ tote was actually the second race up at the meeting in Australia. Didnt realize until I had made my bet on the true 2nd race. Then I had one of those ones where I picked the fav based on the Aussie tote and then after I made my bet the fav changed, my horse no longer the fav. The fav wins and I have a loss in the second race I bet on. So I pulled the plug on that meeting. I am now watching the rest of the meeting, its a heavy track and its now race 5 with the favs not winning in the last races. Ive pulled the plug because in the first two races the fav has won. I had bet on race 2 and 3 mistakenly. A loss of $4 for this meeting, happy to take the small loss based on previous experiences.

Made a modest $7.60 today, it would have been $11.60 if not for the 1st meeting shenanighans. There are 3 Harness meetings in Australia i could bet on but Im done for the day. I checked the history of the 3 venues and while there are plenty of fav wins there all the winning fav dividends were to low for me to bother with. Anyway i have real world work things i need to deal with.


Saturday, October 3, 2009

Loss recovered

Ok, a good evenings effort, back on track with the balance back over the $1000 mark. Its a funny thing how when I have a day where there is a loss I have the impending feeling that its all about to fall over  but so far I seem to recover each time.



So I will now start again trying to get to my $500 target withdrawn from the account by the end of October however I  may struggle a bit here as work commitments are set to get in the way of betting time. A more realistic target for the month will probably only be about $250.

 BTW Im sorry but I cant view this as trading, Im betting, gambling on horses, its that simple. The only thing is I think I have come up with a system that will over time produce small consistent profits but its still betting on horses...

1st race favourites

Im sure Im not dreaming but it appears to me that about 40% of the race meetings i bet on have the favourites in the first race winning. Is this done on purpose so that punters start the day feeling like winners and then get sucked in to parting with their cash as the day goes on?

And how can i maximise this within what im doing?

Friday, October 2, 2009

A loss and catch up

I squeezed in one last meeting on the last day of September. First two races gave me losses and then on the 3rd race I waited till 10 seconds before start time to see what the fav was and then make my bet. After I made my bet i checked again and lo and behold the fav had changed. My horse came 3rd and the new fav won. This was the 3rd race in the meeting so at this point my losses were just $8. I should have stopped and taken that loss but decided to carry on and wouldnt you know it but there were no more fav winners for the meeting. I ended up making a $37.90 loss for the evening.
I then had a few days work which kept me away from this which was a nice break.  and then today i set about grabbing back what I had lost.  I won back $26.50 today which leaves me $13.40 short of my base  balance of $1000.


Thursday, October 1, 2009

A bit of a recap

I think I need to outline what Im doing as coherently as i can so here goes....

My approach is to view a race meeting as a single profit making entity so if it takes 1 race or 5 to   get a win doesnt matter.  There is a distinction here and its important, a $1 profit from a race meeting is the same for me as a $1 profit from a single race. the moment I win at a meeting i move on to the next meeting. At the beginning of a day I will list the various meetings Im betting at, usually about 4 or 5 and I tick each one off as I get a win.

Firstly I use a sequence as a multiplier for my bets up to the 7th number in the sequence.
So if Im using my base bet as $2 for example the sequence Im using as the multiplier is 1,1 2,4,8,16,32 which equates to bets of $2, $2, $4, $8, $16, $32, $64.

I am only betting on favourites determined by the local tote. If  the first fav i pick doesnt win i then bet on the next race at the meeting with the next multiplier  and so on. So for example if i have hit the 5th race in the meeting I would be betting $16.

The reason I stop at the 7th multiplier in the sequence is so that I dont end up destroying my bank by continuing to double my bets. I have also decided that I am happy to wear a loss where there is a no fav win meeting of approx 1/5th to 1/6th of my bank.  This relates for example in that when i am using a bank of $1000 my base bet is $2 and if I had a no fav win loss it would come to $128. The $128 is the total of the $2, $2, $4.....$64 added.

So if I have a bank of $2000 I would be then using a base bet of about $4.

The moment I get a win at a meeting I dont bet again at that meeting, even if its the first race. The chance is that I have  within the laws of probability hit the only fav to win at that meeting. I have had this happen twice where i have won on the first race and then continued to bet and there hasnt been another fav at the meeting and i ended up having a loss.

The sequence I am now using as a rough guide and i adjust depending on the dividend and how open the field is.  For example if Im up to the 3rd bet in the sequence and I see a fav is only paying a dividend of $1.6 that will clearly mean i make a loss if it wins so i will adjust up my bet. If im in a sequence of races and it feels like a race with too many horses can win and the dividends of the top 3 horses are all up around $4 or $5 I will adjust down my bet so its still making a profit if i get a win but I will end up with a smaller loss if it loses.

Im trying to retain some flexibility in what Im doing to suit my growing knowledge of racing.

Hope thats clear, feel free to ask any questions.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Why am I withdrawing the profits?

Why am i taking out the profits each time I hit $1100 and depositing it in a bank account?
I could simply leave the money in the TAB and allow the balance to climb and as it hits vertain levels increase my base bet amount. That would enable me to make even more money each bet however greed might kick in and right now till i am convinced this really will work long term Im going to keep some tight control over it all.
So in the last 3 weeks utilizing a TAB "bank" of $1000 I have been able to earn $382.80 off that TAB bank. Its immensely satisfying to be honest. Im going to take the last couple of days of September off from this, do some more research on some things Im unsure of and then see if i can do better in October. Considering I didnt bet for the first week of September as i was away on a football tournament Im going to set my October target as $500. Thats not too over the top going by my progress so far. Fingers crossed....

29th Sept end of day

2 more meetings, 2 more successes a small profit from the 2 of $5.6 which brings my total up to $1098. Thats close enough to the $1100 I wanted by the end of the month. I will wander off to the TAB in the morning and withdraw another $100 and dump it in a savings account. that will make it $382.80 that i have taken from the TAB in the last 3 weeks.


Monday, September 28, 2009

Will this fail?

I have a conservative approach to this which is partly influenced by the fact a friend of mine a few years ago lost everything to a gambing addiction. He ended up being caught having embezzled about $650,000 from his work and had to seel absolutely everything to avoid prison time and right the wrongs of his crime. He is still paying off that debt at present.
So with respect to what Im doing when i come across people who tell me it wont work my first reaction is to listen to what they say and essentially agree with some of their assumptions. On a couple of forums i have come across some very strong warnings with respect to the method im using from people who clearly have a lot of experience over the years watching people testing their various schemes and systems.
However one thing keeps coming across and thats that the people warning me dont seem to grasp the protection systems i have in place. The first being the stop trigger in the martingale sequence which means that if i hit a losing run I stop after the 7th no win and take the loss. The way i have this designed is that it means the maximum I will lose when a no fav win meeting appears is just on 1/4 of my account balance. Then I adjust my base bet so that it now would give me a 1/4 loss on the new account balance if I hit another no fav win meeting right after the first one.
Currently if I were to count the money i have withdrawn from my TAB account I find that in the 6 weeks or so since i started with a $50 account the balance comes to just under $1500. Within that total are a number of lessons for me where I have lost money because of simple mistakes i have made.
If tomorrow I were to have a no fav win meeting my account balance would drop to about $800 and I would adjust my base bet accordingly. It would take a 3 or 4  of these in a row to really hurt me and Im going to tempt fate by saying I doubt that would happen within the stats i have from the last few years real results. It could happen but its a low enough probability for me to almost (I repeat almost) dismiss it.
So right now looking at the bigger picture so far so good.
In the last 3 weeks I have (as long as in the next day i hit $1100) taken out $382 from a $1000 balance. Not a bad return on $1000 really.
Of course the truth is i have only been doing this a short while in the scheme of things and I could head off on a horror run at any point. I have been mulling over whether or not I should increase my TAB base balance to $3000 or $4000 to increase the size of my profits but that would probably be tempting the gambling gods to kick me in the nuts for getting cocky before I am truely convinced. Im going to hold off for a bit longer.......

29th Sept

4 meetings this afternoon all successful, small profits but no stress...
Total profit for the 4 meetings was $13.70, will pop up a screen shot later tonight as there are 3 harness meetings to hit tonight. A good day so far, earlier in the day I photographed the NZ All Black legend Dan Carter and Silver Ferns Netballer Maria Tutaia for a TV advert (yes my day job is a commercial photographer) both of them very cool people.



TAB account total is at $1092.40, I should be able to hit the $1100 target this evening with a little luck.
That will give me a total of $382.80 taken out of the account for September. NZ$ which is roughly 1/3rd of the British pound for those on the other side of the world or half the $US.


Sunday, September 27, 2009

Screenshot of TAB account for 28th Sept

Closing in on $1100 where i will again take $100 out and chuck it in another bank account. If I can do this by the end of the month I will have withdrawn $382 since the 11th Sept. As it stands I started this whole thing off with $50 and have added no extra monies to this. My current TAB "bank" and the withdrawls have all come from successful betting.
Now comes the dilemma of whether or not I should increase my TAB "bank" so I can increase my base bet from $2. I have some spare money coming to me from some football coaching I do which I dont factor in to my general income, its play money essentially. I will have to give this some thought.