Monday, October 5, 2009

Staking Plan - Betting Ratio's

Ok so I am using my own variation of the dreaded Martingale sequence but with a stopping point for protection of my bank and also with the ability to allow me to vary how much i bet based on how I feel a race meeting is panning out.
However along with that I have had to work out how much I want to bet relative to my bank. Ultimately I have come up with the ratio's below. Early on I was using a ratio that was a bit riskier in terms of eating into my bank if i had a loss day based on a no fav win meeting.
The base ratio's I have come up with are probably a bit conservative but the amusing thing is that the longer this goes on the more protective I have become of my bank. Sort of a case where I have worked hard to get it to this level and I really cant stand losing any of it at all.

I have set the limit of races in a row I will bet on without a win to 8. That came about from research using historic data of race meetings here in NZ and Australia going back for 12 months. I found if I used a 7 race stop point I made a certain profit but if I was brave and went 1 more I made a considerable gain over 7 races. This isnt foolproof however as the stats and probability Im basing this on could be different in a years time. There is a trade off of course and that is the fact that now I am making less per bet on the 1st and 2nd race fav wins.
I will take another look at this situation in about a month or so.

Hope it makes sense.

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