Monday, October 12, 2009

Footy Betting question???

For those of you betting on the football... I think most of you are trading rather than straight out betting but how many of you have looked at applying the Dutch betting system using two bookies. I have been looking at this and found that the bookies sort their odds on a game so that you cant use the Dutch betting system but if you take the odds at one bookie on team A and the odds on team B at another bookie you can end up with a garaunteed profit.
I suspect Im missing something important here as it seems too good to be true.

For example

Lithuania V Serbia this weekend.

TAB in NZ has $3.50 Lithuania and $2.00 Serbia

TABonline Aussie has  $3.00 Lithuania and $2.15 serbia

So if I were to take the NZ TAB odds for Lithuania and the Aussie TAB odds for serbia I could apply the Dutch betting sytem and get a positive outcome.

Lithuania 5/2 desired profit£20.00 stake£24.00 £84.00 Profit £20.00
Serbia 11/10 £20.00 £40.00 £84.00 £20.00
    Total Stake = £64.00      

Im sure i must be missing something here....


  1. However this could work with respect to games where a result has to be found such as cup ties or world cup qualifiers at the play off stage. For example NZ plays Bahrain in 4 weeks time with a draw not being a final outcome.

  2. nope, because three-way betting is always for 90 minutes. There will often be another market called 'To Progress' or 'Cup Winner' for who goes through to the next round. Bookies ain't stupid...

  3. Yeah I had spotted most of the bookies online were doing that however check in the sports betting section, they have a simple To progress option for the NZ v Bahrain world cup qualifier game. They only have 2 betting options and there is no mention of scores at full time, after extra time or penalties. I also spotted that Australia's centerbet have the same thing.

    Also on the nz TAB website they have tennis with only head to head results, bet on either on or the other. No stipulation of leading after 1 set or anything. I see the same thing on other betting websites.

    If you can have a look at the website for me and check their tennis options and their football one with NZ v Bahrain.

    I know the bookies wouldnt be that dumb and I know there must be something else Im missing here.


  4. in which case if you are comparing like-for-like (2 way vs 2 way), chances are the percentages of the two available options will be greater than 100%.

    Bahrain 1.67, NZ 2.10 (over 2 legs)

    Can't see anyone else with it up. Always check you are comparing apples with apples, not one match vs the series, or 90 mins vs ultimate result etc.

    If it looks too good to be true, you will have missed something.

  5. I would also add that if you do find a rare arb opportunity, make sure you check the rules with each bookmaker before placing any bets as they can differ when it comes to settlement. For instance you mentioned tennis, in match betting if a player retires some bookmakers settle that selection as a loser and some as a void, if you are on the wrong end it could cost you.

  6. Thanks for the advice and comments, its very helpful to a complete newbie as myself. I will no doubt ask more daft questions here in the future. I try not to act on anything until I have researched it fully and know that when I spot what I think is something to exploit that there will be a really good reason why someone before me over the years hasnt thought of it before.

    My current little project is researching quinella chances in dog racing under a variation of what Im doing here.... the research is giving me mixed results at this point its not looking that good although I did fiddle with the staking plan and that gave me a positve outcome. However thats possibly one of those cases of someone fiddling with the stats to "make" something work.