Strange night which on the face of it looks ok but it could have ended in disaster. Everything came together on my last bet which was stretching my systems to the 5th race of the place system and the 7th race of the win/fav system. The win/fav system lost ut but the place/fav system saved my bacon with a hefty won on a 5th race $400 bet. Definately nerve racking.
An interesting result on the win/fav system losing when the previous evening I had spent a number of hours putting all of this years results into a spreadsheet in a paper test to show a decent profit and only a 1 meeting loss. So the moment I go hard out with real money I hit a losing sequence...
Still have moved forward which is a good result.
I have a week or so of working on away from home so doubt I will get to bet or post again for a short while. Good luck for those still betting.
Should have been more but the harness dividends were awful. I even used a more aggresive staking plan but typical dividends for place results of $1 to $1.20 meant I made no money from a series of successful bets.
The dogs and Singapore gallops gave me a decent night though.
Someone please enlighten me..... how come harness racing fav dividends are so low?. I get better odds with the dogs and there are smaller numbers racing there and smaller betting pools.
Its so bad I have decided to stop betting on harness racing with either the place/fav system or the win/fav system.
I hope this makes sense its an explanation of how my staking system works with respect to betting on favourites to place. Click on the image to see the full staking plan.
Firstly, the numbers in pink indicate a loss on return of a bet, the numbers in yellow indicate a break even and the numbers in green are profit.
The 2 left columns are my amounts I bet. For this explanation just follow the $1, $5, $20, $70 and $250 amounts. Across the top are the possible dividends.
So if I bet on the first race of a meeting for a place a bet of $1 then looking across the dividend columns I can see what I win. For example if I bet $1 and the horse/dog comes in 3rd and pays out at $1.50 then I get a return of $1.50 which in turn gives me a porfit for that race of 50 cents.
The far right column is how much I have bet in a sequence so if I am up to the 3rd bet in a sequence ( my first two bets havent finished in the top 3) I have spent $26 so far. That means I need a dividend on the 3rd race of $1.40 or better to make a profit. A dividend of $1.3 breaks even and $1.20 or less means I have lost.
Its a very rare thing at a meeting where I have to make the 5th bet of $250 and from memory only once have i lost on that bet.
I do have a more aggressive staking plan which means I get profits even at $1.20 dividends but the staking for that is $1, $7, $50, $300, $1200. I did breifly try it but the risk over reward for this doesnt work for me so I dont actually use it. Also with the low betting pools in NZ a bet over $500 for a place is rejected by the TAB. On top of that it would have an adverse effect on the dividend paid out.
So my cut off point where I accept a loss on a meeting is 5 races in a row where a fav doesnt place. As I have mentioned I have only seen that once.
The plus side of this system is that if one sticks to the rules you make small consistent wins.
The down side is that its simply not possible to make large amounts.
My fav/win system offers more of a chance for bigger winnings and i will draw up a staking plan to explain that soon.
any questions please feel free to drop me a message.