Thursday, May 13, 2010

Favourite to place staking system

I hope this makes sense its an explanation of how my staking system works with respect to betting on favourites to place. Click on the image to see the full staking plan.






Firstly, the numbers in pink indicate a loss on return of a bet, the numbers in yellow indicate a break even and the numbers in green are profit.
The 2 left columns are my amounts I bet. For this explanation just follow the $1, $5, $20, $70 and $250 amounts. Across the top are the possible dividends.
So if I bet on the first race of a meeting for a place a bet of $1 then looking across the dividend columns I can see what I win. For example if I bet $1 and the horse/dog comes in 3rd and pays out at $1.50 then I get a return of $1.50 which in turn gives me a porfit for that race of 50 cents.
The far right column is how much I have bet in a sequence so if I am up to the 3rd bet in a sequence ( my first two bets havent finished in the top 3) I have spent $26 so far. That means I need a dividend on the 3rd race of $1.40 or better to make a profit. A dividend of  $1.3 breaks even and $1.20 or less means I have lost.
Its a very rare thing at a meeting where I have to make the 5th bet of $250 and from memory only once have i lost on that bet.

I do have a more aggressive staking plan which means I get profits even at $1.20 dividends but the staking for that is $1, $7,  $50, $300, $1200.  I did breifly try it but the risk over reward for this doesnt work for me so I dont actually use it. Also with the low betting pools in NZ a bet over $500 for a place is rejected by the TAB. On top of that it would have an adverse effect on the dividend paid out.

So my cut off point where I accept a loss on a meeting is 5 races in a row where a fav doesnt place. As I have mentioned I have only seen that once.

The plus side of this system is that if one sticks to the rules you make small consistent wins.
The down side is that its simply not possible to make large amounts.

My fav/win system offers more of a chance for bigger winnings and i will draw up a staking plan to explain that soon.

Cheers
Mike

any questions please feel free to drop me a message.

2 comments:

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