Strange night which on the face of it looks ok but it could have ended in disaster. Everything came together on my last bet which was stretching my systems to the 5th race of the place system and the 7th race of the win/fav system. The win/fav system lost ut but the place/fav system saved my bacon with a hefty won on a 5th race $400 bet. Definately nerve racking.
An interesting result on the win/fav system losing when the previous evening I had spent a number of hours putting all of this years results into a spreadsheet in a paper test to show a decent profit and only a 1 meeting loss. So the moment I go hard out with real money I hit a losing sequence...
Still have moved forward which is a good result.
I have a week or so of working on away from home so doubt I will get to bet or post again for a short while. Good luck for those still betting.
Should have been more but the harness dividends were awful. I even used a more aggresive staking plan but typical dividends for place results of $1 to $1.20 meant I made no money from a series of successful bets.
The dogs and Singapore gallops gave me a decent night though.
Someone please enlighten me..... how come harness racing fav dividends are so low?. I get better odds with the dogs and there are smaller numbers racing there and smaller betting pools.
Its so bad I have decided to stop betting on harness racing with either the place/fav system or the win/fav system.
I hope this makes sense its an explanation of how my staking system works with respect to betting on favourites to place. Click on the image to see the full staking plan.
Firstly, the numbers in pink indicate a loss on return of a bet, the numbers in yellow indicate a break even and the numbers in green are profit.
The 2 left columns are my amounts I bet. For this explanation just follow the $1, $5, $20, $70 and $250 amounts. Across the top are the possible dividends.
So if I bet on the first race of a meeting for a place a bet of $1 then looking across the dividend columns I can see what I win. For example if I bet $1 and the horse/dog comes in 3rd and pays out at $1.50 then I get a return of $1.50 which in turn gives me a porfit for that race of 50 cents.
The far right column is how much I have bet in a sequence so if I am up to the 3rd bet in a sequence ( my first two bets havent finished in the top 3) I have spent $26 so far. That means I need a dividend on the 3rd race of $1.40 or better to make a profit. A dividend of $1.3 breaks even and $1.20 or less means I have lost.
Its a very rare thing at a meeting where I have to make the 5th bet of $250 and from memory only once have i lost on that bet.
I do have a more aggressive staking plan which means I get profits even at $1.20 dividends but the staking for that is $1, $7, $50, $300, $1200. I did breifly try it but the risk over reward for this doesnt work for me so I dont actually use it. Also with the low betting pools in NZ a bet over $500 for a place is rejected by the TAB. On top of that it would have an adverse effect on the dividend paid out.
So my cut off point where I accept a loss on a meeting is 5 races in a row where a fav doesnt place. As I have mentioned I have only seen that once.
The plus side of this system is that if one sticks to the rules you make small consistent wins.
The down side is that its simply not possible to make large amounts.
My fav/win system offers more of a chance for bigger winnings and i will draw up a staking plan to explain that soon.
any questions please feel free to drop me a message.
A quick $9 last night. I bet for an hour after footy practice, had planned to go through a late night Hong Kong meeting with the win system but was too tired and thought better of it.
When I resumed betting a couple of weeks ago I had a great start and got my running total to $1191 before having a couple of bad days. Its taken about 6 betting days to nearly catch up.
Its a funny thing but I have real confidence about what Im doing and my expectation is to win everyday.
This could be complacency or cockyness but I think its mostly because I firmly believe my 2 little unconventional systems do actually work when I stick to the rules.
Im now expecting the probability gods to slap me in the back of the head sometime soon.....
Im running 2 different systems, one based on favourites to win and one based on favourites to place.
Both systems require time to be free and bet without interruption however the place version is easier to exit from without risking a loss.
Ive been doing this for nearly a year now although i have had a couple of months break around xmas. I have lost count of how many bets I have made in that time but its a considerable number.
I still know bugger all about proper punting where one bases bet choice on knowledge and understanding of horses etc etc.
I love harness racing, especially night harness racing however sadly due to the dividends on offer it gives me the smallest returns. I no longer run the win favourite system with harness racing, it simply too often isnt worth the amount of time for the meagre returns i get based around my system. I do run the place system with harness racing but in truth its only if there are no gallops on and I have nothing better to do with the evening.
The win favourite system doesnt work with the dogs, too often a meeting wont have any favourites winning but the place system works very well with the dogs. Its a funny thing but sometimes the place dividends can be poor but usually the dividends are good. The other funny thing is that sometimes the pace dividend is better than the win dividend.
The gallops are where I do the best, I dont understand why the dividends are better but its just the way it is. I also get to run my win/fav system with the gallops which i quite enjoy, it has more tension for me and also very satisfying everytime I get a result. I suspect its because its the original system i dreamed up and there is more opportunity for bigger winning days. However its very time consuming so I only use it when i have a totally free afternoon.
Wish i knew why harness dividends were so poor, its a shame really, visually for me its far more exciting, well it is live anyway and those mad French have a pretty unique version of trotting racing with the jockeys on the horses....
Part of yesterdays betting, a few bets at the end of the evening when there was nothing on tv and I felt like giving the dogs a spin. Another $8 added in the space of half a dozen bets.
If it wasnt for the fact that the size of bets used in the staking system gets so high so quickly I know I could do this full time and make some decent money. However if it was really this easy someone would have worked it out years ago.
Loss days via my system do come along but within the parameters of my systems they iron themselves out. The loss days due to me being a dumbarse are the frustrating ones and they are the true fly in the ointment. I looked at my records and I think my loss days due to my mistakes account for about 80% of all losses.
Those errors revolve around not following the system rules, missing a bet in a sequence because of interruption, taking a punt and trying to recover a loss with a speculative bet, betting while tired and missing a race because I fell asleep, missing a bet because I was multi tasking while waiting for a race and not checking frequently enough how far till it starts etc etc.
The last few days have been successful, mostly error free and relaxed
My re-entry from a break from betting has been pretty erratic because of work and footy coaching clashing with betting times etc and my results have been pretty erratic too. However when I have a clear day and clear head to bet and follow my system it does generally flow pretty well. I suspect its the same with many people that once in the groove everything tends to fall in to place.
The other interesting thing is how you can have good or bad days with respect to dividends. Yesterday was a classic example where I messed up with 2 bets, ended up $40 down but was able to recover it fairly easily simply because the place dividends were so juicy. I have had other days where I have bet all day, had reasonable results in terms of winning but the place dividends were so low the profit margins were very poor.
Im wondering if different parts of the racing season have an impact on dividends etc?
Running total to $1137.60 but it should have been $40 more. A day after I make the comment about how easy it is when I simply follow my systems rules I break the rules and quickly lose $40 which it then takes me a few hours to get back. I do wonder if I will ever learn.....
Sorry just a quick post, good day here about $50 winnings taking the total to 1101.30
I havent got the exact winnings total as I have just grabbed the number from my tab account while racing out the door.....
I havent really done much this week apart from a couple of spradic attempts to get some bets on. The trouble is that having to stop halfway through a sequence ends in a small loss of $20. Currently grabbing some back but the key issue here is I dont have enough time spare right now to do this properly. My system is based simply on statistics and because of this its quite time consuming in terms of having to devote time to live racing. Most others systems are based more on knowledge and analysis of horses etc which I suspect means people arent waiting till 15-30 seconds before a race to place a bet.
Im convinced my system does work but the drawbacks are its time consuming and also difficult to make larger sums of money.
Im going to be moving house soon as well so hopefully once all my extra stuff is under control I will be able to do this with a bit more conviction. Till then its bits and bobs betting and updates for me.