Thursday, October 1, 2009

A bit of a recap

I think I need to outline what Im doing as coherently as i can so here goes....

My approach is to view a race meeting as a single profit making entity so if it takes 1 race or 5 to   get a win doesnt matter.  There is a distinction here and its important, a $1 profit from a race meeting is the same for me as a $1 profit from a single race. the moment I win at a meeting i move on to the next meeting. At the beginning of a day I will list the various meetings Im betting at, usually about 4 or 5 and I tick each one off as I get a win.

Firstly I use a sequence as a multiplier for my bets up to the 7th number in the sequence.
So if Im using my base bet as $2 for example the sequence Im using as the multiplier is 1,1 2,4,8,16,32 which equates to bets of $2, $2, $4, $8, $16, $32, $64.

I am only betting on favourites determined by the local tote. If  the first fav i pick doesnt win i then bet on the next race at the meeting with the next multiplier  and so on. So for example if i have hit the 5th race in the meeting I would be betting $16.

The reason I stop at the 7th multiplier in the sequence is so that I dont end up destroying my bank by continuing to double my bets. I have also decided that I am happy to wear a loss where there is a no fav win meeting of approx 1/5th to 1/6th of my bank.  This relates for example in that when i am using a bank of $1000 my base bet is $2 and if I had a no fav win loss it would come to $128. The $128 is the total of the $2, $2, $4.....$64 added.

So if I have a bank of $2000 I would be then using a base bet of about $4.

The moment I get a win at a meeting I dont bet again at that meeting, even if its the first race. The chance is that I have  within the laws of probability hit the only fav to win at that meeting. I have had this happen twice where i have won on the first race and then continued to bet and there hasnt been another fav at the meeting and i ended up having a loss.

The sequence I am now using as a rough guide and i adjust depending on the dividend and how open the field is.  For example if Im up to the 3rd bet in the sequence and I see a fav is only paying a dividend of $1.6 that will clearly mean i make a loss if it wins so i will adjust up my bet. If im in a sequence of races and it feels like a race with too many horses can win and the dividends of the top 3 horses are all up around $4 or $5 I will adjust down my bet so its still making a profit if i get a win but I will end up with a smaller loss if it loses.

Im trying to retain some flexibility in what Im doing to suit my growing knowledge of racing.

Hope thats clear, feel free to ask any questions.

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