Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Dodged a huge Bullet and made a big profit

Below is the reason why you lot should NOT copy what Im doing even though this time its come out very nicely for me. Hopefully seeing what has happened with me today will put anyone contemplating this method off. I need to have a good look at this all over again.

Im using my fav place system which has a very aggressive and very dangerous staking plan. The flip side is that I felt the probability risk was very low. The basic backbone of the staking plan was based around the fact that from historical data of the last years NZ racing there had never once been a case of a fav not coming in the first 3 place by the 6th race. A fav had always come through for a place result by the 5th race and that had only gone to the 5th race on a couple of occasions.

Today I got very lucky as at a meeting I was betting on the fav finally came through as a place bet in the 6th race.  My staking plan is this $1, $5, $20, $70 and $250 at which point I would stop and take the loss. The staking points are based on the need to recover and show a loss even if place dividends drop to $1.40. They can go lower but overall Im seeing both in historical records and as im doing this an average of about $1.50 to $1.60

The first race of this meeting came through for me and so i carried on with the rest of the meeting.  The  next race was a non result, that was the $1 bet. The following race was a non result which was the $5 bet. Just before I was about to place the $20 bet my sister dropped by to say hello so I missed making the bet. The horse i would have bet on which would have been my $70 bet also failed to finish in the top 3. If you have a look at the sequence and race numbers on the screen grab you will see this.

So I resume betting with a $70 bet on what normally would have been my $250 bet. the bet which I didnt think I would have to resort to very often. The fav again failed to finish in the top 3.

So my next bet which was my $250 bet but wouldnt have happened normally because I would have reset and started from scratch comes through. Not only that but it pays a $2 dividend giving me a big fat profit.

Lady Luck and my sister deserves some flowers at least.

Probability is a dangerous thing to mess with.....

1 comment:

  1. Looks like your doing rather well! If you value your right 2 bet, sign the petition at www.right2bet.net which aims to give all of Europe the same rights to place bets with any licensed E.U bookmaker.