Monday, September 28, 2009

Will this fail?

I have a conservative approach to this which is partly influenced by the fact a friend of mine a few years ago lost everything to a gambing addiction. He ended up being caught having embezzled about $650,000 from his work and had to seel absolutely everything to avoid prison time and right the wrongs of his crime. He is still paying off that debt at present.
So with respect to what Im doing when i come across people who tell me it wont work my first reaction is to listen to what they say and essentially agree with some of their assumptions. On a couple of forums i have come across some very strong warnings with respect to the method im using from people who clearly have a lot of experience over the years watching people testing their various schemes and systems.
However one thing keeps coming across and thats that the people warning me dont seem to grasp the protection systems i have in place. The first being the stop trigger in the martingale sequence which means that if i hit a losing run I stop after the 7th no win and take the loss. The way i have this designed is that it means the maximum I will lose when a no fav win meeting appears is just on 1/4 of my account balance. Then I adjust my base bet so that it now would give me a 1/4 loss on the new account balance if I hit another no fav win meeting right after the first one.
Currently if I were to count the money i have withdrawn from my TAB account I find that in the 6 weeks or so since i started with a $50 account the balance comes to just under $1500. Within that total are a number of lessons for me where I have lost money because of simple mistakes i have made.
If tomorrow I were to have a no fav win meeting my account balance would drop to about $800 and I would adjust my base bet accordingly. It would take a 3 or 4  of these in a row to really hurt me and Im going to tempt fate by saying I doubt that would happen within the stats i have from the last few years real results. It could happen but its a low enough probability for me to almost (I repeat almost) dismiss it.
So right now looking at the bigger picture so far so good.
In the last 3 weeks I have (as long as in the next day i hit $1100) taken out $382 from a $1000 balance. Not a bad return on $1000 really.
Of course the truth is i have only been doing this a short while in the scheme of things and I could head off on a horror run at any point. I have been mulling over whether or not I should increase my TAB base balance to $3000 or $4000 to increase the size of my profits but that would probably be tempting the gambling gods to kick me in the nuts for getting cocky before I am truely convinced. Im going to hold off for a bit longer.......

No comments:

Post a Comment