Saturday, September 26, 2009

26th bets last race win.....

3 more meetings followed this afternoon.
The first was in Randwick where horse #2 won at a dividend of $2.8 on a $2 bet
The second meeting was at Doomben where the first 4 horses bet on all lost and I finally got a result in the 5th race with a $16 bet at a div of $2.8.

So far a profit of $14.40

Now it gets complicated. The third meeting this afternoon was on the Gold Coast and it wasnt till the last race of the day that the favourite came in and only by a nose.  My normal cut off point in the sequence is at race 7 which would within the sequence of $2, $2, $4, $8, $16, $32, $64 come to a total bet of $128. However because I had the 3 meetings running and while the Doomben one was also bringing me losses I was adjusting the amount i was betting. As I do this I have a spreadsheet open which tells me quickly what to expect back if I win.
The Gold Coast races this afternoon were full of fields where there were no really clear favourites and so the dividends were very high. As the meeting unfolded I was looking at my possible losses and how confident I felt about races with 3 or 4 possible favourites. So my betting sequence for this ended up being $2, $2, $4,  $8, $16, $16,  $32, $32 which was 8 races, more than my cutoff of 7. However the amounts bet in the sequence kept me within my total sequence amount of $128 which is why as the meeting progressed i was able to get to race 8.
The longer the meeting went on the more my approach became one of trying to cover losses as opposed to making a profit.
The final fav which won in race 8 on a bet of $32 had a dividend of $4.5  which gave me a profit of $32 for that meeting. Thats all well and good but there is a dilemma here....

If i had simply gone all out and bet as per normally even going to a final 8th race bet of $128 my profit for the meeting would have been $320.  The quandry here is that should i be going all out and trusting the system and taking the big wins or losses that happen? Or should I be doing what i have done here and manage my losses as I go. Sort of knowing when to stop and when to keep going?. The main problem with doing what i did is that i miss out on a big payout which further down the track would offset the loss of when i hit a no win meeting.

Im not sure on this issue.
Anyway total profit for today was $53.4

I started 1 more meeting tonight which doesnt show up on this screenshot. The meeting was in Toowoomba and the first horse I picked didnt win with a $2 bet. However after the race had finished I discovered that it was actually the third race in the meeting and the previous 2 races had been already won by favourites so i called it quits and took the $2 loss. That meeting doesnt show up on the screenshot below.

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