Safety stops

So how do I deal with the chance of a long run of consecutive. I decided to put in a stop point on my sequence ( 1,2 4,8,16,32). At 32 I would stop and start again at 1, this would mean that if I hit a 10 run no win sequence the losses would be $78 instead of the $1023. That seemed much easier to cope with but even then there is a flaw in that Im now relying on a fav winning within 6 races and that in terms of statistics can fall over even more frequently than 10 or more losses.

Then I found that the national horse racing bodies published all results and they have those results going back a number of years. Both New Zealand and Australia for both gallops and harness racing.

http://www.hrnz.co.nz/ NZ Harness racing website

http://www.nzracing.co.nz/ NZ Gallops

http://www.australianracingboard.com.au/ Australian gallops

http://www.harness.org.au/ Australian harness

My next trick was the laborious job (2 solid days...) of inputting a years results into a spreadsheet showing how the favourites winning would do within the sequence betting I had. Through this and various fiddling with what amount my safety stop should be I found that on this 1 years data the best trigger point was actually 128 which would give me a loss on that day of $255. This on this years data I had recorded gave me the biggest profit. A trigger point of 64 dropped the projected profit by about 10% but I felt it wouldnt be as nerve racking as getting to 128 in a sequence so i decided that would be the trigger point to reset. As it was from the data i put in the profit was about 25% on an imaginary bank.

Within that years data were 5 non win days and 2 of them happening in 1 week which caused a decent little blip. the other thing which leads to a loss is when I would see a sequence where i reset and the next race won on a $1 bet and then the next meeting would do the same thing. Ultimately my imaginary balance of $5000 using a 64 stop trigger ended up with a final balance of $7282. That was also using the base bet of $2 and using the sequence numbers as multipliers.

Another problem I found was that if looking at races in Australia the favourite on their course was often different from the favourite on the NZ tote. I found that the local tote tended to be the best indicator of the most likely fav winner.