Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Safety stops

So how do I deal with the chance of a long run of consecutive. I decided to put in a stop point on my sequence ( 1,2 4,8,16,32). At 32 I would stop and start again at 1, this would mean that if I hit a 10 run no win sequence the losses would be $78 instead of the $1023. That seemed much easier to cope with but even then there is a flaw in that Im now relying on a fav winning within 6 races and that in terms of statistics can fall over even more frequently than 10 or more losses.

Then I found that the national horse racing bodies published all results and they have those results going back a number of years. Both New Zealand and Australia for both gallops and harness racing. NZ Harness racing website NZ Gallops Australian gallops Australian harness

My next trick was the laborious job (2 solid days...) of inputting a years results into a spreadsheet showing how the favourites winning would do within the sequence betting I had. Through this and various fiddling with what amount my safety stop should be I found that on this 1 years data the best trigger point was actually 128 which would give me a loss on that day of $255. This on this years data I had recorded gave me the biggest profit. A trigger point of 64 dropped the projected profit by about 10% but I felt it wouldnt be as nerve racking as getting to 128 in a sequence so i decided that would be the trigger point to reset. As it was from the data i put in the profit was about 25% on an imaginary bank.

Within that years data were 5 non win days and 2 of them happening in 1 week which caused a decent little blip. the other thing which leads to a loss is when I would see a sequence where i reset and the next race won on a $1 bet and then the next meeting would do the same thing. Ultimately my imaginary balance of $5000 using a 64 stop trigger ended up with a final balance of $7282. That was also using the base bet of $2 and using the sequence numbers as multipliers.

Another problem I found was that if looking at races in Australia the favourite on their course was often different from the favourite on the NZ tote. I found that the local tote tended to be the best indicator of the most likely fav winner.

No comments:

Post a Comment